• The IEA sees geothermal energy gaining attention as a stable, low-carbon source
• New technologies could allow geothermal to meet up to 15% of demand growth by 2050
• Kenya stands out, with geothermal already supplying about 43% of its electricity

As global electricity demand accelerates, attention is shifting toward energy sources capable of producing power around the clock. The International Energy Agency (IEA) points to geothermal energy as a low-carbon option that delivers stable output independent of weather conditions.

Globally, geothermal energy still plays a limited role, accounting for about 1% of total electricity demand. This reflects the geographic concentration of conventional geothermal resources and the cost structure of projects, where drilling operations and well construction can represent up to 80% of total costs.

These constraints have, however, encouraged the emergence of new technological pathways. Next-generation geothermal technologies aim to broaden the range of exploitable resources through deeper drilling and the use of enhanced geothermal systems or closed-loop designs. According to the IEA, technological progress and gradually declining costs could allow geothermal energy to account for up to 15% of global electricity demand growth by 2050, provided economic conditions are favorable.

Recent investment trends point to this shift. Funding for next-generation geothermal projects reached nearly $2.2 billion in 2025, up from $22 million in 2018. At the same time, conventional geothermal and geothermal heat projects continue to attract capital, driven by demand for solutions that can deliver stable electricity over the long term.

Against this backdrop, Kenya stands out as one of the African countries best positioned to benefit from this momentum. Geothermal energy already supplies about 43% of the country’s electricity. According to Utah FORGE, a U.S.-based geothermal research observatory, Kenya’s geothermal potential is estimated at nearly three times its current installed power capacity.

Linked to the geology of the East African Rift, this situation suggests that East Africa could leverage geothermal energy to support rising electricity demand, as technologies advance and economic conditions become more favorable.

Abdoullah Diop