• Dangote Group signed a $2.5 billion deal with Ethiopia’s sovereign fund to build a fertilizer plant in Gode.

• The factory will produce 3 million tons a year, aiming to cut costly fertilizer imports.

• Gas supply remains uncertain, as nearby fields have seen little progress since the 1970s.

Aliko Dangote is making another multibillion-dollar bet on Africa’s fertilizer market. On August 28, his group signed a $2.5 billion agreement with Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH) to build a fertilizer plant in Gode, in southeastern Ethiopia.

The plant, to be owned 60% by Dangote Group and 40% by the Ethiopian state, will produce 3 million tons a year once completed. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said the project will help reduce fertilizer imports and strengthen food security in a country where foreign currency reserves remain tight.

Dangote is following the same model he used in Nigeria. His urea plant in Lekki produces 3 million tons a year, meets 65% of Nigeria’s needs, and exports across West Africa.

Construction in Ethiopia is expected to take about 40 months, though no start date has been announced.

The biggest uncertainty is fuel. The plant will rely on the Calub and Hilala gas fields, discovered in the 1970s but still underdeveloped. Ethiopia revoked rights from Chinese company Poly-GCL three years ago after repeated delays and financing problems. Restarting these fields will be critical for the factory to operate at full capacity.

The Ethiopia venture comes as Dangote reshapes his empire. After stepping back from Dangote Sugar and Dangote Cement, he is now focusing on three core businesses: the $20 billion Lekki refinery, fertilizer, and petrochemicals.