• Global airline net profit should rise to $41 billion in 2026, according to IATA.

• Africa is set to generate only $1.3 net profit per passenger—far below the $7.9 global average.

• Persistent supply-chain constraints, high operating costs and fragmented markets continue to weigh on Africa’s performance.

Global airline net profit should increase from $39.5 billion in 2025 to $41 billion in 2026, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said during its 2025 Global Media Day. The projection implies a 3.9% net margin, unchanged from 2025. The outlook confirms the recovery that airlines launched in 2023 as global air travel returns to its central role in economic activity.

IATA attributes the positive trend mainly to faster global GDP growth expected by late 2026, which should support air-travel demand. However, the association expects global trade to grow only 0.5% next year.

Passenger traffic should reach a record load factor of 83.8% in 2026, which supports fares but deepens aircraft-availability pressures. Supply constraints continue to hit the industry as manufacturers struggle with backlogs and component shortages. IATA notes that cargo capacity has tightened since 2023 despite rising volumes.

Regulatory burdens in the European Union, infrastructure constraints and geopolitical conflicts add further risks to the outlook.

Africa should remain the least profitable region in the global air-transport industry in 2026. IATA estimates that African carriers will generate $1.3 net profit per passenger, down from $1.4 in 2025, and far below other regions such as the Middle East ($28.6 per passenger), Europe ($10.9) and North America ($9.8).

This gap reflects structural issues that the industry regularly highlights, including high operating costs, heavy taxation, insufficient infrastructure and a fragmented market. These factors keep African airlines’ margins low and reduce resilience, “despite traffic growth above the global average,” IATA says.

Despite the lag, Africa still holds medium-term potential. Demographic growth, rapid urbanisation and the rise of regional hubs—particularly in Ethiopia, Morocco, Côte d’Ivoire and Rwanda—could strengthen intra-African connectivity.

The continent also posted the world’s fastest cargo growth, with freight volumes up 16.6% in October 2025 from a year earlier. Full implementation of the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM/MUTAA) could further reduce costs and stimulate demand by creating an integrated airspace.

For now, IATA data shows that the global industry continues to strengthen despite headwinds, while Africa must accelerate reforms to avoid falling further behind. Overall sector revenue should grow 4.5% in 2026 to exceed $1.053 trillion.

This article was initially published in French by Moutiou Adjibi Nourou

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum