• Africa could save $3 to $5 trillion and create 2.2 million extra jobs with renewables
• Installed clean energy capacity would need to reach 3,500 GW by 2050, up from 80 GW
• Report urges financing tools, distributed energy, and debt relief for green transition

Africa could save between $3 trillion and $5 trillion and create 2.2 million additional jobs by shifting to 100% renewable energy systems. This is the finding of a report published on June 19 by Power Shift Africa, a Kenya-based climate and development think tank.

The report, titled “African Energy Leadership: The Case for 100% Renewable Energy,” highlights that decarbonizing Africa’s energy sector, while boosting economies and ensuring universal energy access, would require installed renewable energy capacity to reach around 3,500 gigawatts (GW) by 2050, compared to 80 GW in 2023.

The continent holds vast renewable energy resources, particularly in solar and wind. Africa's solar photovoltaic potential is estimated at 482,261 GW, while onshore wind resources are valued at 71,778 GW. Meeting energy needs under a 100% renewable scenario would require less than 1% of this enormous potential.

Moreover, building a fully renewable electricity supply would need less than 1% of Africa’s total land area.

Modeling shows that replacing fossil fuels used for electricity generation, cooking, and transport with renewably sourced electricity is not only technically feasible but also significantly cheaper. It would promote job creation, expand energy access, and protect the environment and climate.

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Continuing with fossil fuel-based energy systems under a "business as usual" scenario would cost Africa around $22 trillion between 2020 and 2050, most of it tied to fuel expenses.

While developing renewables would require higher infrastructure investments, $7.3 trillion under a 100% renewable scenario compared to $3.5 trillion for fossil fuels, it would save $8.3 trillion in fuel costs. Fuel savings alone would be more than double the additional $3.8 trillion in investments needed compared to sticking with fossil fuels.

The transition to renewable energy would also bring major employment benefits. Projections show that total energy sector jobs, across all technologies and energy sources, would grow from 1.5 million in 2023 to 3.2 million by 2050 under the fossil fuel-based scenario.

Total energy jobs would reach 5.4 million in 2050 under a fully renewable system, representing 2.2 million additional jobs.

Direct jobs in Africa's renewable energy sector would rise from about 350,000 today to 2 million by 2050 under the fossil fuel scenario, and to 5.3 million under the 100% renewable scenario. The report indicates this job growth would more than offset losses in the fossil fuel sector.

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Currently, over 600 million Africans lack access to reliable electricity, and nearly half the population ,  around 720 million people, live more than 10 kilometers from the central grid, which primarily serves urban and industrial areas powered by fossil fuels.

Even communities connected to the grid often face outages when demand spikes. Yet this vulnerability offers an opportunity for Africa to leapfrog directly to renewable energy, avoiding the risk of stranded fossil fuel assets.

Decentralized or distributed renewable energy, generated locally without relying on large centralized grids, represents the "fastest and cheapest" route to achieving universal energy access, according to the report.

The report recommends several solutions to finance Africa's accelerated energy transition. These include long-term power purchase agreements with small renewable energy producers to attract private investment, increased domestic budget mobilization, more Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), reallocation of International Monetary Fund (IMF) Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), and African debt cancellation.

It also stresses the need to tap into international compensation for losses and damages suffered by the continent. Africa is home to 19% of the world’s population but accounts for just 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

First published in French by Walid Kéfi

Edited in English by Firmine AIZAN