• Up to 20% of arabica coffee land unsuitable by 2050

• Climate change shifts suitability, with uneven impacts across producers

• Industry urged to adapt sourcing, invest in climate resilience

About 20% of land currently used to grow arabica coffee could become unsuitable by 2050 due to climate change, according to a note published Friday by Dutch lender Rabobank.

That would be more than double the share of land already considered unsuitable for the crop.

Arabica coffee requires specific climatic conditions, including moderate temperatures, seasonal rainfall and partial shade. As a result, production is concentrated in the “coffee belt”, the equatorial zone between the Tropics of Cancer and Capricorn, the report said.

Countries such as Brazil, Colombia, Ethiopia and Honduras have used those conditions to become leading producers and exporters of arabica. Climate change, however, could reshape that landscape.

A shared crisis, uneven impacts

Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns and more frequent extreme weather events are destabilising growing conditions and reducing yields, the report said, adding that the impact would vary widely across producing countries.

Ethiopia, the world’s fifth-largest producer, is expected to be among the main beneficiaries, with suitable growing areas expanding and land classified as highly favourable nearly tripling.

The report estimates that suitable areas could cover 50% of land currently in production, compared with 39% today, while highly suitable areas could rise from 4% to 13%.

Honduras, the world’s eighth-largest producer, is expected to face the sharpest decline. Suitable growing areas could shrink from 53% to just 12% of current production land by 2050, marking the steepest drop among the countries studied.

Brazil, the world’s largest producer, is expected to fare better. Around 62% of currently harvested land could still fall within suitable zones in 2050, compared with 81% today. While the decline would be significant, the country would retain a substantial area under favourable conditions.

In Colombia, the share of coffee grown in unsuitable zones could rise to 18% in 2050, from 7% today, while the proportion produced in suitable zones could fall from 56% to 45% of current production.

The next decade seen as decisive

While the study does not quantify future production gains or losses, Rabobank said the coming decade would be critical for the entire value chain.

As favourable zones shift, the balance of supply, quality and risk is also expected to change, prompting importers and roasters to rethink sourcing strategies.

The bank added that companies would need to shift from a reactive approach to forward planning. This would involve investing in climate-smart practices, building long-term partnerships in emerging regions and integrating climate analysis into sourcing decisions. It also stressed that transparency, traceability and cooperation would be essential to maintain both volume stability and brand integrity.

Rabobank said the resilience of coffee supply chains would depend on decisions made today by producers, buyers and investors.

The study adds to growing research highlighting the impact of climate change on the coffee industry, particularly arabica. The variety, widely used in roasted and ground coffee, is more sensitive to heat and drought than robusta.

A 2020 study by consulting firm McKinsey estimated that coffee yields in Ethiopia could fall by as much as 25% by 2030 if rainfall declines and droughts become more frequent.

Espoir Olodo