In the wake of Simandou, iron ore projects are multiplying across West Africa. Once led by Liberia, Mauritania and Sierra Leone, the region’s production boom is now being driven largely by Chinese investment.

ArcelorMittal said on Friday, Jan. 30, that Liberia’s parliament has ratified a mineral development agreement extending the company’s operations in the country until at least 2050. The deal secures the future of a planned $1.8 billion investment aimed at quadrupling its iron ore output in Liberia. The expansion makes the India-founded group an exception in West Africa, where Chinese firms are driving much of the current production boom.

Liberia’s largest iron ore producer, ArcelorMittal currently has a capacity of about 5 million tonnes per year. In the early 2020s, the company launched a plan to raise this to 15 million tonnes, and eventually 20 million tonnes annually, through spending initially budgeted at $1.4 billion and later increased to $1.8 billion.

The project includes upgrades to the rail corridor linking Tokadeh to the port of Buchanan, as well as improvements to port infrastructure, and is scheduled for completion in 2026.

Once the work is finished, ArcelorMittal plans to expand the railway further to carry up to 30 million tonnes of iron ore per year. Under the terms of the agreement signed with the Liberian government and ratified last week, the Luxembourg-based company will pay $200 million for additional mining rights and guaranteed access to the rail capacity it is financing.

The agreement also calls for the railway to become independently operated starting in October 2030, a move that Liberia’s President Joseph Boakai said would improve efficiency, promote multi-user access and strengthen the concession’s overall impact on the national economy.

According to the 2023 report of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, published at the end of December 2025, ArcelorMittal accounts for around 90% of Liberia’s iron ore exports. Higher volumes from the company should therefore translate into a sharp rise in national production. GlobalData estimates output will climb from 5.2 million tonnes in 2024 to 18 million tonnes in 2026.

China dominates in West Africa

Liberia’s expected production increase comes as the West African iron ore sector undergoes major shifts. Historically led by Sierra Leone, Mauritania and Liberia, growth in the sub-region is now set to be driven by Guinea, with the Simandou project due to begin operations at the end of 2025.

Simandou

At full capacity, Simandou is expected to export up to 120 million tonnes of iron ore annually. GlobalData forecasts production of 35.4 million tonnes there in 2026.

The roughly $20 billion project, which includes the construction of a port and a railway line stretching more than 600 km, is largely backed by Chinese players. At the end of January, the world’s largest steel producer, Baowu Resources, said it was strengthening its hold on the project, raising its stake from 49% to 51% in Winning Consortium Simandou, the joint venture operating blocks 1 and 2.

Blocks 3 and 4 are controlled by another joint venture led by Australia’s Rio Tinto and China’s state-owned Chinalco.

Even if Liberia’s expansion depends on ArcelorMittal’s ramp-up, Chinese firms are also present in the country. China Union took over the Bong Mines concession in 2008 and shipped its first iron ore in 2014. The company has faced repeated criticism, including an activity suspension ordered in August 2024 by Liberian environmental authorities, and its production has struggled to grow.

While most Liberian output is exported to Europe to supply ArcelorMittal’s steel mills, Guinea ships mainly to China, the world’s largest consumer. The same is true for Sierra Leone, where another Chinese group is developing the country’s biggest iron mine.

China Kingho Group is investing $1 billion to produce 10 million tonnes of iron ore per year, with plans to expand to 30 million tonnes annually.

Local processing still limited

Iron ore is the main export product in Sierra Leone and Liberia. In Guinea, Simandou is widely seen as a game changer, with the IMF estimating the project alone could lift GDP by 26% by 2030.

Yet in these countries, as well as Mauritania, where reserves are mined by the state-owned SNIM, the economic impact of iron ore remains largely limited to extraction.

The massive investments underway across West Africa are primarily aimed at supplying steel mills outside the region, whether owned by ArcelorMittal, Chinese groups, or the U.S. company Ivanhoe Atlantic.

Ivanhoe Atlantic wants to develop a mine in Guinea capable of producing between 2 and 5 million tonnes annually in its first phase, with a later expansion to 30 million tonnes.

The Kon Kweni iron ore project in Guinea, developed by Ivanhoe Atlantic

According to data cited by the African Development Bank, Africa accounted for 4% of global iron ore production in 2023, but only 1.2% of global crude steel output. By comparison, China held 54% of global steel production capacity that year.

For now, Guinea is the only country in the region planning a shift toward local processing. Djiba Diakité, chief of staff to the Guinean president, said companies operating Simandou must submit feasibility studies within two years for the construction of either a steel mill or a pellet plant, an intermediate product used in steelmaking.

Emiliano Tossou