• Africa holds vast renewable resources but accounts for just 1.6% of global capacity
• Nearly 600 million people still lack electricity despite strong natural potential
• Export-driven strategies raise questions about domestic access and priorities

Global renewable energy capacity reached 5,149 GW in 2025, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in a report published on March 31, 2026. Of this total, Africa—home to nearly 18% of the world’s population—accounts for only about 82 GW (roughly 1.6%). The continent also generates just around 3% of global electricity, based on 2023 data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

This gap is all the more striking given that the continent holds one of the world’s largest renewable energy potentials. It benefits from some of the highest levels of solar irradiation, as well as wind and geothermal resources that remain largely untapped, even as nearly 600 million people still lack access to electricity, according to several sources, including the World Bank.

This contrast between resource abundance and limited capacity and access is not new. It echoes a well-documented phenomenon in the oil and mining sectors, often referred to as the “resource abundance paradox.” A similar question now arises in the context of the energy transition: whether Africa’s renewable energy resources will follow a different trajectory.

A massive potential, still largely untapped

According to the report “Renewable Energy Market Analysis: Africa and Its Regions,” published in 2022 by IRENA, Africa’s technical potential for solar photovoltaic energy is estimated at around 7,900 GW, while wind potential reaches 461 GW. In several subregions—notably North, West, and Southern Africa—solar irradiation exceeds 2,100 kWh/m² per year, and average wind speeds can reach 7 m/s. In addition, geothermal potential in the East African Rift is estimated at 15 GW.

Despite these advantages, installed capacity remains limited. In 2025, the continent had about 22 GW of solar and 11 GW of wind capacity. Relative to technical potential, this represents less than 0.3% of solar resources and about 2.4% of wind resources. Africa accounted for less than 1% of the more than 2,392 GW of global solar capacity in 2025, and also less than 1% of the roughly 1,291 GW of global wind capacity. Across all technologies, Africa’s renewable capacity stands at around 82 GW, or about 1.6% of the global total.

This gap is also reflected in electricity generation. In 2023, Africa produced about 916,581 GWh, or roughly 3% of global output. This production is also highly concentrated, with South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria alone accounting for about 59% of the total, according to IEA data.

Moreover, solar, wind, and geothermal technologies represented only 5.8% of the continent’s electricity generation in 2023, according to the IEA, compared with 13.4% for solar and wind globally in the same year, according to the think tank Ember. These figures highlight a persistent disconnect between Africa’s available energy resources and their conversion into actual production capacity.

Limited financing

The development of renewable energy in Africa is also constrained by limited financing. In 2024, sub-Saharan Africa captured only 2.3% of global investment in renewable energy, according to IRENA’s “Global Landscape of Energy Transition Finance 2025” report.

In absolute terms, investment in the region reached about $18 billion in 2024, compared with an average of $14 billion between 2022 and 2023. However, this increase remains insufficient relative to needs. The IEA estimates that about $15 billion per year will be required to achieve universal electricity access across the continent by 2035, largely through renewable energy.

In addition, investment flows are highly concentrated. A significant share is directed toward a limited number of markets, notably South Africa and Egypt, which benefit from more established regulatory frameworks and more structured power systems. In the rest of the continent, projects are often perceived as riskier. This perception particularly affects decentralized renewable solutions, which are nonetheless essential for expanding electricity access in rural areas.

Diverging trajectories with uncertain outcomes

In response to these challenges, two main approaches are emerging across Africa. In countries with relatively advanced power systems, renewable development is part of a strategy to consolidate existing infrastructure. South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria, for example, rely on established systems—often based on coal or domestically produced gas—and are implementing structured programs to gradually integrate more renewable capacity, including battery storage solutions.

Africa’s energy landscape remains highly fragmented, with relatively mature systems coexisting alongside markets still under development, despite significant demographic pressure and rising demand.

Across much of sub-Saharan Africa, the dynamic is different. Development is driven by smaller-scale projects, including decentralized solutions, as well as initiatives supported by international institutions. Programs such as Mission 300, through Energy Compacts adopted by around 30 countries, reflect this progressive approach, focused on expanding access to electricity, developing renewable energy, and mobilizing private financing.

These elements underscore a fragmented landscape, where relatively mature systems concentrate most of the region’s electricity capacity, while other markets remain in early stages of development, despite large populations and substantial needs. The Democratic Republic of Congo illustrates this imbalance, with electricity access at around 21% for a population of more than 100 million.

These different trajectories point to an ongoing transformation of Africa’s energy sector. While still evolving, the sector shows growing awareness of the role renewable energy can play in securing electricity supply and improving reliability for households and industries.

An energy transition already geared toward exports

In several countries, renewable energy development is increasingly oriented toward export markets, particularly through large-scale green hydrogen projects currently in planning, often in partnership with international industrial players and foreign governments.

Mauritania provides a clear example. Projects such as Nour, AMAN, and Megaton Moon target capacities of several tens of gigawatts, with the aim of producing hydrogen and ammonia for export. Yet the country’s installed power capacity stands at about 615 MW, with annual production of 1.66 TWh and an electricity access rate of around 55%.

Egypt is also developing several green hydrogen projects and exploring electricity exports to Europe. Tunisia, for its part, is considering renewable energy projects designed to supply interconnections across the Mediterranean. By their scale, these projects go far beyond domestic needs. They are designed to produce energy for export—either transformed or directly transmitted—rather than primarily supplying national grids.

Decisive choices ahead

In the current context of global geopolitical tensions, developments in energy markets once again highlight the vulnerability of African economies to external shocks.

In Mauritania, diesel and gasoline prices have recently increased by about 10% and 15%, while liquefied petroleum gas has risen by more than 60%. According to authorities, these increases are a direct consequence of the conflict in the Middle East and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Bloomberg, fuel prices have more than doubled in Somalia, while diesel costs in South Africa are expected to rise by at least 50%. In Kenya, fiscal measures are being implemented to contain price increases, and some stations are facing supply shortages.

These developments underscore the importance of relying more heavily on local resources, particularly renewable energy, as part of a broader energy security strategy. In this context, current policy choices and the ability to turn energy commitments into concrete outcomes could have a lasting impact on the continent’s future.

Abdoullah Diop