• Senegal peanut output seen rebounding to 1.15 million tonnes in 2025/26
• Sudan production forecast falls to 1 million tonnes amid conflict disruptions
• Bigger Senegal crop risks domestic glut but boosts export prospects

Senegal is on track to overtake Sudan for the first time and become Africa’s second-largest peanut producer after Nigeria in the 2025/26 season.

Data published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) show Senegal’s harvest is forecast at 1.15 million tonnes. While not a record, the figure marks a rebound from the reduced 2024/25 output estimated at 800,000 tonnes and would be enough to move the country ahead of Sudan.

Sudan’s production is expected to fall to 1 million tonnes, its lowest level in years and a third consecutive season below the 2 million-tonne mark.

The USDA did not specify the reasons for the decline, but the contraction reflects a combination of security, economic and logistical disruptions. The civil war between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese national army since April 2023 has affected key growing regions in Darfur and Kordofan.

“Many companies have been forced to suspend operations or scale back, undermining contract farming and disrupting the entire supply chain,” said Islam Baasher, commercial development manager at Bayrony, speaking on the sidelines of the World Sesame and Peanut Conference held in Turkey last September.

He added that the closure of many banks has restricted farmers’ access to financing, slowing planting and harvesting and directly reducing output. Insecurity has also increased the risk of losses and spoilage, pushing up transport costs and weighing on profitability and market supply.

Even so, optimism is growing in Senegal. The projected harvest would mark a milestone for the second-largest economy in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), which recorded yields of around one tonne per hectare in 2024/25.

That was about 50% higher than Sudan’s yield of 0.69 tonnes per hectare, achieved on 780,000 hectares compared with 2.83 million hectares in Sudan. For the current season, the gap is expected to widen further. Senegal’s productivity is forecast at 1.32 tonnes per hectare, while Sudanese yields are projected to fall to 0.50 tonnes per hectare.

Domestic headache, export opportunity

The larger crop brings both challenges and opportunities. At the National Oilseed Processing Company (Sonacos), authorities have announced a target of purchasing 450,000 tonnes of peanuts from farmers.

However, two months after the marketing season began in November, only 62,000 tonnes had been bought, according to the latest estimates.

Sonacos managed to raise peanut procurement sharply between 2023/24 and 2024/25, with collections increasing from 12,933 tonnes to 155,578 tonnes, according to official figures. But doubts are mounting over whether the state-owned company can meet its most ambitious target yet.

“It is unrealistic to think this company is capable of buying 450,000 tonnes of peanut seeds,” said the regional coordinator of farmers’ association Aar Sunu Momel in Thiès, in remarks reported by the Senegalese Press Agency (APS) on Jan. 11.

Some observers fear oversupply on the domestic market and downward pressure on prices, despite the government setting a floor price of 305 CFA francs per kilogram. The situation could benefit exporters. The government recently scrapped a 4% tax on international sales, and exporters typically offer better prices than Sonacos.

That could provide a much-needed lift to a sector that has struggled in recent years. The value of Senegal’s unroasted peanut exports has fallen steadily since 2021, dropping from 154.7 billion CFA francs ($279.5 million) to 65.3 billion CFA francs ($118 million). Over the same period, export volumes fell nearly threefold to just 121,798 tonnes, according to data compiled by the National Agency of Statistics and Demography (ANSD).

Espoir Olodo