• Guinea-Bissau’s military authorities released key opposition figures arrested after the November 2025 coup.

• The transition pledged to form an inclusive government with opposition participation, ECOWAS said.

• The IMF forecast economic growth of 5.5% in 2025 despite political risks.

Guinea-Bissau’s political transition has begun sending signals of de-escalation toward the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), with measures that include the release of political detainees and plans for an inclusive transitional government.

Authorities released leading opposition figures, including former Prime Minister and African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC) leader Domingos Simões Pereira, according to multiple media reports. Security forces arrested these figures during the military coup of November 26, 2025.

The releases followed recent exchanges between ECOWAS and the military-led authorities in Bissau.

In an official statement published on Saturday, January 31, 2026, ECOWAS reported a series of measures adopted by the military to ease political tensions and restart national dialogue. Authorities announced plans to form an “inclusive” transitional government.

Under the proposed arrangement, authorities will allocate three ministerial portfolios to the PAIGC and three to the political group led by Fernando Dias Da Costa, a candidate in the November presidential election. Authorities will also appoint ten representatives from the two groups to the National Transitional Council (CNT), which serves as the legislative body of the transition.

In its statement, ECOWAS said it “welcomes the measures recently taken by the transitional authorities of the Republic of Guinea-Bissau aimed at fostering an inclusive political environment and advancing the country’s return to constitutional order.”

Authorities also announced the withdrawal of their request for the departure of the ECOWAS Mission in Guinea-Bissau (ESSMGB), which provides stabilization support.

ECOWAS had previously suspended Guinea-Bissau from its institutions following the military coup and called for a swift restoration of constitutional order. General Horta N’Tam currently leads the country’s transition under a one-year mandate.

On the economic front, Guinea-Bissau has shown resilience. The International Monetary Fund forecasts economic growth of 5.5% in 2025.

However, the World Bank warned that weaker performance in the cashew sector, exposure to international commodity shocks, and potential fiscal slippage could weigh on growth prospects.

This article was initially published in French by Ingrid Haffiny (intern)

Adapted in English by Ange J.A de BERRY QUENUM