• Washington is preparing a $12bn plan to stockpile rare earths and key minerals

• The initiative targets supply security for U.S. industry amid China tensions

• Africa could face shifting demand as U.S. sourcing strategies evolve

The United States is stepping up efforts to secure supplies of critical minerals as it seeks to reduce reliance on supply chains dominated by China. Those efforts could enter a new phase with plans to build a strategic reserve of rare earths and other key raw materials under a $12 billion initiative known as “Project Vault,” reported by international media on February 2.

The project reflects growing concern in Washington over vulnerabilities in the supply of minerals considered essential for national security and industrial competitiveness. It also raises questions about how global value chains could adjust, particularly in Africa, which has become a central arena in competition between China and the United States for mineral resources.

Focus on domestic industrial needs

Available information indicates that Project Vault is primarily designed to secure inputs for major U.S. industries, including automotive manufacturing and technology. The plan would aim to build a stockpile equivalent to around 60 days of consumption, intended to absorb short-term supply disruptions.

Financing would combine private capital with debt, including a potential loan of up to $10 billion from the U.S. Export-Import Bank. Several commodity trading firms are expected to play a role, including Switzerland-based Mercuria Energy, which has expanded its presence across African critical mineral supply chains.

Media reports also point to possible high-level discussions involving President Donald Trump and mining entrepreneur Robert Friedland in connection with the project. At this stage, however, key operational elements remain undefined, including target markets and the share of the stockpile that would come from U.S. production versus imports.

The scale of the initiative underscores Washington’s ambition to shield its industrial base from external shocks. With trade tensions with China unresolved, a strategic reserve could help limit the impact of export controls or restrictions, such as those Beijing has previously signaled on rare earths. Its capacity to address prolonged disruptions, however, remains uncertain.

Africa in the supply equation

The implications for global critical mineral value chains are still taking shape. Africa, increasingly at the center of Sino-American rivalry, could see Project Vault reinforce U.S. efforts to diversify supply sources away from China.

This is particularly relevant given the profiles of actors linked to the initiative. Robert Friedland, founder of Ivanhoe Mines, operates major assets in Africa, including the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Platreef polymetallic project in South Africa. Mercuria has also deepened its footprint on the continent, including through a recent trading joint venture with Congo’s state-owned miner Gécamines, with a primary focus on supplying the U.S. market, and a copper offtake deal signed in November 2025 on assets operated by Eurasian Resources Group in the DRC.

Against this backdrop, Project Vault fits into a trajectory where Africa is not a new frontier, but an already identified component of U.S. strategies to secure critical minerals outside Chinese control. This dynamic intersects with increasingly assertive African policy agendas that prioritize local processing, value addition, and stricter conditions for access to mineral resources.

In that context, Project Vault could provide greater commercial visibility and risk mitigation for some mining projects under development, while also testing how U.S. supply security objectives align with Africa’s push for deeper integration into global value chains.

Aurel Sèdjro Houenou