• U.S.–Africa trade surged in early 2025, with exports up 26%. Yet, a $4.86B U.S. deficit widened as growth remained concentrated in a few nations.
• Bilateral trade saw dramatic shifts. Nigeria recorded a $0.78B U.S. surplus, while the deficit with South Africa reached $7.74B, driven by commodity trade.
• Despite recent gains, U.S.–Africa trade, at approximately $51 billion, is only a quarter of China's roughly $222 billion volume, reinforcing the U.S. as a secondary trade partner.

Trade in goods between the U.S. and Africa showed robust growth in the first seven months of 2025, although the U.S. continues to import more from the continent than it exports. According to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau, American exports to Africa increased by 26.1% to $22.95 billion, while imports from the continent rose by 21.6% to $27.81 billion. This resulted in a U.S. trade deficit of $4.86 billion, slightly wider than the $4.66 billion gap recorded during the same period the previous year, underscoring a complex dynamic of expanding yet unbalanced commercial ties.

The headline growth figures mask a significant concentration in just a few key markets. On the export side, a staggering 86% of the total increase came from just five countries: Egypt, Nigeria, Ethiopia, South Africa, and Angola. These markets alone generated $4.07 billion of the overall $4.74 billion rise in U.S. exports to the continent.

A similar pattern emerged on the import side, where South Africa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, and Ethiopia were the dominant players. South Africa alone was responsible for an additional $3.56 billion in U.S. imports. This surge is mainly attributable to rising commodity prices.

Côte d’Ivoire’s higher trade values, for instance, coincide with the global cocoa price surge that remained elevated through mid-2025. Meanwhile, increased imports from the DRC reflect its role as the world’s top supplier of cobalt, a key input for batteries, signalling higher U.S. demand for critical minerals.

Differential Swings at the Country Level

At the bilateral level, the fortunes of Nigeria and South Africa moved in starkly opposite directions. Nigeria shifted dramatically from running a trade deficit of $0.88 billion with the U.S. in 2024 to a surplus of $0.78 billion in 2025—a stunning swing of nearly $1.7 billion. A combination of stronger U.S. exports to Nigeria and lower American imports from the country fuelled this turnaround.

In stark contrast, the U.S. bilateral deficit with South Africa deepened significantly. Imports from South Africa surged by $3.56 billion to reach $11.49 billion, while U.S. exports increased by a modest $0.38 billion. This imbalance widened the U.S. deficit with South Africa to $7.74 billion, a substantial $3.18 billion larger than the previous year. Elsewhere, the U.S. improved its trade balance with Egypt, but deficits deepened with commodity-driven partners like Côte d’Ivoire (Cocoa Beans) and the DRC (Copper).

The data also reveals distinct patterns between sub-Saharan and North African economies, particularly when viewed through the lens of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). For the group of AGOA-eligible sub-Saharan countries, U.S. trade grew to $32.96 billion. While exports to these nations rose 18.6%, imports jumped by 30%, widening the U.S. deficit with this bloc by $3.09 billion to a total of $9.62 billion.

Conversely, trade with countries outside AGOA’s scope, primarily in North Africa, moved in the opposite direction. U.S. exports to this group climbed 32.8% to $9.68 billion, while imports declined by 5.8%, improving the U.S. surplus by $2.73 billion. This underscores a clear regional divergence in trade dynamics.

A Resilient but Unbalanced Partnership

Despite the strong growth in American trade, the scale of U.S.–Africa commerce remains dwarfed by that of China. Data from China Customs, compiled by the Ecofin Agency, shows that China–Africa trade totaled roughly $222 billion in the first eight months of 2025. Chinese exports to the continent rose 24.7% to $140.8 billion, against imports of $81.3 billion, resulting in a massive $ 59.5 billion surplus for China. By comparison, the U.S. total trade volume of approximately $50.76 billion represents just a quarter of China’s, underscoring that the U.S. remains a distant second in trade engagement with Africa.

Ultimately, the seven-month data points to resilient U.S.–Africa trade flows amid ongoing global volatility. However, the persistence of a U.S. trade deficit, coupled with its concentration in a few commodity-driven markets, suggests limited diversification in commercial links. While adjustments are underway, as seen in Nigeria's trade surplus, the broader picture confirms that the U.S. is a secondary partner to Africa compared with China. Nevertheless, its commercial footprint is growing in select, strategic markets, driven by energy, agriculture, and the critical minerals that connect African supply chains to America’s manufacturing and green-technology ambitions.

Idriss Linge