• Banks expect Venezuela’s oil production to rise gradually after regime change, subject to heavy investment.
• JPMorgan projects output could reach up to 2.5 million barrels a day within a decade.
• Goldman Sachs estimates a potential downside of about $4 a barrel on oil prices by 2030 if production reaches 2 million bpd.

The capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. forces and Donald Trump’s announcement of a political takeover of the country mark a turning point for a producer long sidelined by international sanctions and chronic underinvestment. As a founding member of OPEC, Venezuela holds about 17% of global proven oil reserves, or nearly 303 billion barrels. However, operators have left this potential largely untapped for more than a decade.

During the 1970s, Venezuela produced about 3.5 million barrels a day, representing more than 7% of global supply. Production fell below 2 million bpd in the 2010s before settling at around 1.1 million bpd last year, or barely 1% of global output. Some estimates place recent production closer to 800,000 bpd, reflecting deteriorated infrastructure and persistent operational constraints.

JPMorgan says a regime change could trigger a gradual but meaningful recovery in output. The bank’s analysts estimate Venezuela could raise production to 1.3–1.4 million bpd within two years and reach as much as 2.5 million bpd over the next decade as operators rehabilitate existing capacity and deploy new investments. “These dynamics are not currently priced into the long end of the oil price curve,” the analysts say.

Goldman Sachs adopts a more cautious stance while converging on the medium- and long-term impact. In a note dated Jan. 4, the bank says a Venezuelan production recovery would require heavy investment and durable political stability. Under a scenario in which output rises to 2 million bpd, Goldman estimates a downside impact of about $4 a barrel on oil prices by 2030.

In the near term, the impact would remain “ambiguous, but modest,” and would largely depend on the evolution of U.S. sanctions policy. Goldman keeps its 2026 forecasts unchanged, with Brent averaging $56 a barrel and WTI at $52. The bank also expects Venezuelan production to remain broadly stable at around 900,000 bpd by that time.

The prospect of a recovery largely depends on the role U.S. oil companies could play. Some firms never fully exited Venezuela despite sanctions and past nationalizations. Chevron stands as the most emblematic case. The company maintained a presence through joint ventures with state-owned PDVSA even as most international majors left in the 2000s. This continuity allowed Chevron to retain operational knowledge of existing assets, although U.S. sanctions severely constrained its activity. In a normalization scenario, Chevron appears among the best-positioned players to support a gradual rehabilitation of infrastructure.

By contrast, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips exited Venezuela after nationalization waves under former president Hugo Chávez. Both companies launched international arbitration proceedings to seek compensation. ConocoPhillips has pursued claims of about $12 billion linked to asset expropriations, while ExxonMobil has sought roughly $1.65 billion. These disputes remain central to any assessment of a potential return.

According to sources cited by Reuters, the U.S. administration recently told major oil executives that any compensation prospects would require a return to Venezuela and significant upfront investment funded by the companies themselves. In other words, oil groups would need to commit capital to rebuild a severely degraded sector before recovering any portion of past claims. This condition raises costs and risks, especially as companies must also navigate contractual uncertainty, aging infrastructure, security concerns and the risk of prolonged political instability.

These constraints explain why analysts do not expect a rapid rebound in production. Over the longer term, however, Venezuela could re-emerge as a structural factor in the global oil market.

This article was initially published in French by Olivier de Souza

Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum