• Oil majors expand offshore exploration from Senegal to Angola
• Gulf of Guinea accounts for about 11% of global hydrocarbon discoveries since 2020
• Regulatory reforms and offshore potential drive renewed investment

The Gulf of Guinea is once again emerging as a major exploration zone for oil majors, driven by offshore discoveries and regulatory reforms. This momentum comes as energy demand proves stronger than expected. Companies are under pressure to renew their reserves, as their commercial stocks could be depleted within an average of 20 years at current production rates, according to Woodmac. Global hydrocarbon demand could continue to rise through 2050, the International Energy Agency says.

Projection of reserve life for major companies

Source: Woodmac

Chevron, TotalEnergies, Shell, and Eni are among the majors that have recently acquired new exploration blocks from Senegal to Angola. About 11% of hydrocarbons discovered worldwide since 2020, or around 8.7 billion barrels of oil equivalent, are located along the Gulf of Guinea coast, mainly crude oil, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. This trend signals a strong return of the region in the exploration strategies of large energy groups.

The shift reflects efforts by oil majors to rebuild their asset portfolios after several years of financial discipline and reduced exploration spending. Growth in U.S. shale oil production is showing signs of leveling off, pushing companies to seek new production sources in still partly underexplored areas. The Gulf of Guinea is one of the few regions combining significant geological potential with access to deep offshore acreage.

Strategic repositioning in African offshore

TotalEnergies has emerged as the most active international player, finalizing new production-sharing contracts in Nigeria, the Republic of Congo, and Liberia in 2024. Shell has returned to Angola after a 20-year absence, acquiring stakes in two undeveloped offshore blocks. Chevron entered the MSGBC basin, which spans Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and Guinea, by securing two blocks offshore Guinea-Bissau.

“This simply complements an already strong portfolio of exploration blocks we have along the West African coast, an extremely prolific area,” said Liz Schwarze, Chevron’s vice president for exploration. Azule Energy, the joint venture between Eni and BP, drilled Angola’s first exploration well dedicated specifically to gas, revealing an estimated potential of more than 1 trillion cubic feet of gas and up to 100 million barrels of condensates.

Regulatory reforms in parts of the region have also helped revive investor interest. In Angola, a presidential decree adopted in late 2024 introduced fiscal and contractual adjustments aimed at making mature blocks more attractive and stimulating exploration. The country also withdrew from OPEC to free itself from production quotas, giving it greater flexibility to develop new projects. Nigeria has approved new fiscal incentives for oil and gas to attract more majors offshore and launched a licensing round for 50 blocks in December 2025.

Major discoveries, but persistent technical limits

The Gulf of Guinea now hosts some of Africa’s largest recent discoveries. Offshore Namibia, located on the maritime edge of the zone and sharing gas-bearing reservoirs similar to Angola’s, holds about 6.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent in discovered and recoverable resources. This places it ahead of Côte d’Ivoire, Angola, and Nigeria, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. TotalEnergies is developing the Venus project there and holds a 40% stake in the Mopane field, estimated at at least 10 billion barrels.

Despite these prospects, technical constraints remain significant. Ultra-deepwater drilling, geological complexity, and infrastructure costs continue to weigh on project profitability. Shell recorded a $400 million impairment on a discovery in Namibia while reaffirming its commitment to regional exploration.

Over the medium term, the current momentum could allow the Gulf of Guinea to stabilize or even increase hydrocarbon production in the coming years. Sustaining this trajectory will depend on governments maintaining attractive regulatory frameworks and on companies converting recent discoveries into commercially viable projects.

Olivier de Souza