• World Bank cuts Gabon growth forecast to 2.4% for 2025–2027
• Oil output, prices to drop; budget deficit may hit 5% of GDP
• Diversification, reforms urged amid infrastructure and demand challenges

The World Bank expects a slowdown in Gabon's economic growth over the 2025-2027 period. In its latest economic report, it forecasts an average annual growth rate of 2.4%, a decrease from the 2.9% expected in 2024, driven primarily by the oil sector.

As Gabon's oil fields mature, the World Bank predicts three consecutive years of declining production: -2.1% in 2025, -5.8% in 2026, and -2.0% in 2027. This decline will be exacerbated by an unfavorable outlook for global oil prices, which are expected to average around $60 per barrel during the period, down from $80 in 2024. The anticipated result is a drop in government revenue and budget deficits that could reach 5% of GDP.

In response, Libreville is banking on other resources, including manganese, timber, iron, and agriculture. The Baniaka iron deposit, set to begin operations in 2026, and the Belinga project are among the strategic drivers for diversification. However, these sectors remain fragile due to a sluggish international economy, according to local business media Le Nouveau Gabon, which cited weak Chinese demand, as well as persistent domestic constraints such as power outages, rail disruptions, and inadequate road infrastructure.

To improve its outlook, the country is being urged to accelerate reforms. The World Bank is emphasizing the need for rigorous fiscal consolidation, strengthened public governance, and targeted investments in energy and transportation to stimulate the private sector.

In a more stable political context, marked by the arrival of a newly elected government, the institution believes investor confidence could gradually be restored.