• Citigroup forecasts copper prices above $13,000/ton by Q2 2026
  

• Supply cuts, U.S. tariffs, and stockpiling drive prices to record $11,620
  

• Disruptions at top mines tighten supply; outlook remains contested by some analysts

Analysts at U.S. financial group Citigroup forecast that copper prices will rise above 13,000 dollars a ton by the second quarter of 2026. The prediction, announced last week, comes as copper prices hit record highs on international markets, reaching 11,620 dollars on the London Metal Exchange on December 5.

The three-month copper contract has gained about 30 percent since the start of the year, reaching record levels. This increase reflects both supply constraints in the mining sector and trade factors linked to the Trump administration. Citigroup cites the latter as one of the forces that could push prices higher next year.

In anticipation of higher U.S. tariffs on refined copper, traders have been building inventories in American warehouses for several months. According to Bloomberg data, roughly 60 percent of copper inventories in exchange-monitored facilities are in the United States, mainly in Comex warehouses. This could trigger a global copper shortage, especially as several major mines are experiencing disruptions that are tightening supply.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, where Ivanhoe Mines and its Chinese partners operate Kamoa-Kakula, one of the world’s largest copper mines, a seismic incident in May 2025 is affecting production in the medium term. Instead of producing at least 500,000 tons of copper in 2025, Ivanhoe now expects a maximum of 420,000 tons this year and in 2026. A recovery to 540,000 tons is forecast for 2027.

A landslide at Grasberg in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest copper mine, forced operator Freeport McMoRan to suspend part of its operations, cutting planned 2026 output by 35 percent. Operational issues at the Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile have also revised production expectations.

In late November, J. P. Morgan said global supply growth is expected to remain flat this year before rising by 1.4 percent next year, or about 500,000 tons less than previously forecast.

"All in all, we think these unique dynamics of disjointed inventory and acute supply disruptions tightening the copper market add up to a bullish set up for copper, and are enough to push prices above $12,000/mt in the first half of 2026," said Gregory Shearer, head of base and precious metals strategy at J. P. Morgan.

If these forecasts materialize, they could increase revenue for African producer countries such as the DRC and Zambia, assuming production remains unchanged. However, other factors need consideration. The implementation of U.S. tariffs is not guaranteed, and a shift in the policy could ease supply pressures and reduce the risk of shortages.

Analysts at Benchmark Minerals have questioned whether these risks are real, suggesting they may be speculative. Goldman Sachs believes a shortage is unlikely before 2029 and that prices will not remain above 11,000 dollars a ton for long.

Emiliano Tossou