Alphamin Resources, the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) top tin producer, has lowered its 2025 production targets. This revision is due to the security situation, which forced the company to suspend operations for several weeks. Tin prices, already up this year, are expected to remain high through 2026.

The World Bank projects tin prices will climb 10% in 2025, followed by further gains of 3% and 2% in 2026 and 2027, respectively.

The forecast, published in the latest edition of the "Commodity Markets Outlook", emphasizes that persistent global supply constraints are expected to bolster prices. These rising price expectations coincide with the potential for Alphamin Resources, the operator of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) largest tin mine, Bisie, to increase its output next year following operational challenges in 2025.

Demand is expected to remain robust, driven by the expanding production of semiconductors, photovoltaic solar panels, and other technologies essential to the energy transition

The Bretton Woods institution anticipates increased supply from Indonesia, following the resolution of licensing delays that had hampered exports since 2024, and from Myanmar, where a resumption of key mines halted since 2023 is expected.

Despite these supply increases, the report cautions that “the global tin market is likely to remain tight, given the limited pipeline of new projects and continued vulnerability to geopolitical and operational disruptions.”

Demand is expected to remain robust, driven by the expanding production of semiconductors, photovoltaic solar panels, and other technologies essential to the energy transition.

Alphamin completed an expansion of the mine in mid-2024 with the commissioning of a second plant for the Mpama South deposit, increasing Bisie's annual production capacity to 20,000 tons, compared to approximately 12,500 tons produced in 2023.

These factors are forecast to push average tin prices to $34,000 per tonne in 2026 and $34,500 per tonne in 2027. These figures represent increases of $2,000 and $2,500, respectively, compared to the projections made in the April 2025 edition of the Commodity Markets Outlook. Alphamin's average realized tin sales price in the third quarter of 2025 was $33,877 per tonne, a 4% increase quarter-over-quarter.

DRC Production Outlook

The DRC is a key African tin producer, largely due to the Bisie mine in North Kivu province, which accounted for 6% of global tin concentrate production in 2024, up from 4% in 2023.

Alphamin completed an expansion of the mine in mid-2024 with the commissioning of a second plant for the Mpama South deposit, increasing Bisie's annual production capacity to 20,000 tons, compared to approximately 12,500 tons produced in 2023.

However, the mining company was unable to fully utilize this expanded capacity this year due to the advance of rebel groups in the eastern part of the country, near the site. Operations were temporarily suspended in March 2025 for several weeks, resuming in mid-April, which resulted in a cut to its annual forecast. The company is now targeting a maximum production of 18,500 tons for the year.

While a return to normal operations at Bisie in 2026 could allow Alphamin to capitalize on higher tin prices with greater output, significant risk factors persist. The conflict in the DRC currently lacks a definitive resolution, and a renewed offensive by rebel groups could again affect the company.

Furthermore, the country’s ability to fully benefit from higher global prices will depend on the government’s control over concentrate exports from artisanal mining sites. An estimated 15,852 tons of tin concentrate from the artisanal sector were officially exported in 2024. This includes over 3,000 tons from North and South Kivu. However, a portion of this output reportedly bypasses official channels and is smuggled into neighboring countries. A 2022 report by the NGO Global Witness found that 90% of Rwanda's 3T minerals (tantalum, tin, and tungsten) exported were illegally sourced from the DRC.

Emiliano Tossou