• Zambia’s GDP growth forecast at 6.1% in 2026, Fitch says

• Higher copper output and lower inflation expected to drive growth

• Kariba dam recovery may boost electricity generation and economic activity

Zambia's real GDP growth is forecast to reach 6.1% in 2026, up from an estimated 4.4% in 2025, Fitch Solutions said in a report released Friday. The research firm attributed the acceleration largely to rising copper production and easing inflationary pressures, noting the projected rate would far exceed the 3.4% average recorded over the 2015–2024 decade.

Two main factors are expected to drive the improvement. The first is the easing of headwinds that had weighed on consumer spending. Consumer price inflation fell to 7.5% year-on-year in February 2026, its lowest level since June 2018 and the first time since April 2019 that it has fallen within the Bank of Zambia's target band of 6% to 8%. The drop in inflation is expected to prompt further monetary easing. The Bank of Zambia's policy rate is now forecast to end 2026 at 11.75%, down from its current level of 13.50%.

The second supportive factor is the recovery in water levels at the Kariba hydroelectric dam, which fell to historic lows in 2024 during a prolonged drought caused by the El Niño weather phenomenon. The rebound is expected to support a recovery in electricity generation, reducing load-shedding and bolstering economic activity.

Downside risks tied to the Middle East war and climate

Another driver of economic growth is expected to be higher copper production. Fitch Solutions forecast a 10% increase in Zambia's copper output in 2026, with global prices seen averaging $11,900 per metric ton, a 19.6% increase from 2025.

That would boost export volumes and foreign exchange earnings while also attracting greater investment flows, as major foreign mining companies look to capitalize on the country's favorable operating environment and substantial copper reserves. The liberalization of other sectors, including energy, is also expected to draw investment, given Zambia's significant solar energy production potential.

Fitch Solutions cautioned, however, that the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran could weigh on Zambia's growth outlook this year. The firm cited the southern African country's status as a net energy importer and the risk of supply disruptions for key copper-mining inputs, such as sulfur. A further downside risk could stem from below-average rainfall, which would disrupt agricultural output and set back the recovery in hydroelectric generation.

Walid Kéfi