• Direct tariff impacts on African exports to the U.S. are expected to stay limited
• Key risk lies in falling demand from China, which could lower global commodity prices
• More than half of African countries rely on raw materials for over 60% of their export earnings

The new U.S. trade tariffs introduced under the Trump administration may not hit African countries directly, but the nations could still face serious economic consequences. According to a June 3 report by the Foundation for International Development Studies and Research (Ferdi), the real threat will come from increased volatility in commodity prices triggered by worsening trade tensions between China and the United States.

The document, titled “Impact of U.S. Trade Policy on African Economies,” explains that although African exports like fuel and minerals are exempt from the new tariffs, the scale of the policy shift is still significant. On April 8, the U.S. had announced reciprocal tariffs on African countries ranging from 10% to 50%, Lesotho facing the highest rate. However, by April 9, the administration decided to pause this scenario and instead apply a flat 10% tariff on all exporters.

This change is a major shift for many African nations. Thirty-four countries have been enjoying preferential access to the U.S. market through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which has waived duties on a wide range of products since 2000. In addition, 35 African countries have benefited from the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), which has kept average tariffs around 1.3% for their exports.

Despite the rise in tariffs, Ferdi notes that most African countries will not feel an immediate shock. The U.S. only accounts for 6% of Africa’s total exports. For 25 countries, the U.S. share is under 2%. In fact, 32 countries send less than 4% of their exports to the U.S.

Top African exporters to the U.S. last year included South Africa ($14 billion), Nigeria ($5.7 billion), Ghana ($1.7 billion), Angola ($1.2 billion), and Côte d’Ivoire ($948 million). Yet, when combining tariff exposure and trade dependency, only ten countries appear truly vulnerable: Lesotho, Mauritius, Madagascar, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, Liberia, Ethiopia, Malawi, South Africa, and Senegal.

On the flip side, oil, gas, and mining exporters such as Angola, Algeria, Libya, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ghana are not expected to be severely affected because their main goods are exempt.

A Bigger Threat: Falling Commodity Prices

The bigger risk, the report warns, comes from what could happen if trade tensions escalate. China is Africa’s biggest trading partner and a key buyer of raw materials like oil, copper, and other metals. If the Chinese economy slows due to a trade war with the U.S., its demand for these goods would drop, pulling global prices down.

This pattern is not new. Back in 2018 and 2019, during earlier rounds of U.S.-China tariff fights, oil and metal prices dropped. Now, a similar trend could hit again. Even before the current trade flare-up, prices had already been declining due to sluggish global growth and oversupply. The World Bank expects commodity prices to fall by 12% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026.

A steeper fall could occur if tensions grow or if uncertainty worsens. That would slash export revenues across Africa, where more than half the countries depend on oil, gas, minerals, or metals for at least 60% of their export income.

Another concern is that global supply chains could become more fragile and expensive. Delays in shipping and rising costs would hurt African exporters, especially those selling raw materials. This could make commodity markets more unstable.

Lastly, a drop in commodity prices, especially during times of trade friction, could drive up borrowing costs. Investors might become more risk-averse, making it harder for African nations to access global financial markets. That would make an already challenging situation even tougher.