• Global food commodity prices rose in 2025, FAO index up to 127.2

• Vegetable oils, meat and dairy hit highs despite cheaper cereals, sugar

• Higher prices strain net food importers, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa

International food commodity prices rose in 2025, ending two consecutive years of decline, according to a report released by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) on Jan. 9.

The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks the international prices of cereals, vegetable oils, meat, sugar, and dairy products, averaged 127.2 points. This compares to 122 points a year earlier.

This level represents the third highest since 2008. It marks a halt in the decline of basic food prices, which had reached peaks following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Sugar and cereal indices fell in 2025 to their lowest levels since 2020 due to abundant global supply. However, this did not compensate for the sharp appreciation of other commodities.

According to the Rome-based agency, the vegetable oil index climbed to 161.6 points. This was 17.1% higher than in 2024, driven notably by uncertainties regarding global palm oil supply in Southeast Asia. Prices for dairy products and meat reached new highs. The dairy index stood at 146.9 points, its second highest level since 2008, while the meat index reached a record 123.2 points.

For dairy products, this trend resulted from strong import demand combined with limited exportable supplies early in the year. For meat, the evolution was explained by sustained global demand, reinforced by uncertainties related to animal diseases and geopolitical tensions. This dynamics strengthens pressure on trade balances for net food-importing countries. In Sub-Saharan Africa, vegetable oils are the second most imported product category after cereals.

For the current year, observers estimate that price tensions could continue, with sustained pressure expected for vegetable oils. Markets will need to closely monitor public policy developments, particularly support for biofuels in Asia, which could continue to affect the availability of oilseeds. In the cereal sector, abundant global stocks are expected to help keep prices at relatively low levels. Last July, the FAO indicated a production forecast of 2.925 billion tonnes of grains for 2025/2026, a record level.

Espoir Olodo