• Ivanhoe Mines expects copper production at Kamoa-Kakula to fall to 420,000 tons in 2025
• The revision follows a seismic incident at the Kakula mine that led to temporary suspension of operations
• Mine concentrators are operating below full capacity, delaying Ivanhoe’s production ramp-up plan

Copper production at the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is expected to decline in 2025. Ivanhoe Mines, the operator, revised its annual output forecast down to a maximum of 420,000 tons, representing a 4% drop from the 437,061 tons recorded in 2024.

The adjustment, announced in a note published on June 11, follows a seismic event that struck the underground Kakula mine in May. Operations were suspended after the incident, forcing the company to lower its initial 2025 production target of between 520,000 and 580,000 tons.

Although activity has resumed in the west wing of the Kakula mine, production is now forecast between 370,000 and 420,000 tons. The disruption has left concentrators 1 and 2 running at only 50% of their combined capacity, while concentrator 3 and the Kamoa mine are operating normally.

This downward revision disrupts Ivanhoe’s ramp-up strategy. The company was aiming to build on a 12% production increase in 2024, but the seismic event has introduced new uncertainty. Plans for a 2026 output target of around 600,000 tons have also been withdrawn, with updates expected later.

Ivanhoe stated that operations in the east wing of the Kakula mine are expected to begin soon. However, the company noted that it remains too early to accurately assess the potential impact of any further seismic activity or related disruptions. Key risks include the integrity of underground infrastructure, the pace of dewatering activities, and access to new mining areas.

The Kamoa-Kakula project is jointly owned by Ivanhoe Mines (39.6%), Zijin Mining (39.6%), the DRC government (20%), and Crystal River Global (0.8%).