• GDP growth will ease to 3.5% in 2025 from 3.7% in 2024 and below the 3.8% forecast.
• Drought-hit livestock sector and weak diamond demand weigh on outlook.
• Growth expected to recover to 3.9% in 2026, slightly above IMF’s forecast.

Namibia’s real GDP growth will slow to 3.5% in 2025, down from the 3.8% initially forecast and 3.7% recorded in 2024, the Bank of Namibia said in a report published Monday, August 11. The slowdown stems mainly from weaker activity in the primary sector, particularly livestock, as drought in 2024 reduced herd sizes.

The diamond industry is also expected to extend its decline due to weak global demand, the impact of customs duties and rising competition from synthetic diamonds. Manufacturing, especially meat processing and basic non-ferrous metals, faces difficulties that will further weigh on growth.

Namibia’s dependence on diamond, uranium and other mineral exports leaves its economy exposed to volatile international prices. The threat is worsened by climate change, which is limiting water availability and constraining mining operations, especially in coastal regions.

Still, the Bank of Namibia expects a turnaround, forecasting 3.9% GDP growth in 2026. The rebound will come from a revival in agriculture, continued gains in construction, and stronger uranium and metal ore output. The projection edges above the IMF’s 3.75% forecast, which also attributes the improvement to better weather patterns.

This article was published in French by Lydie Mobio

Edited in English by Ange Jason Quenum