• Copper prices hit $10,775/t, their highest since May 2024, driven by a weak dollar and recent mining disruptions.

• UBS expects tight supply to lift prices further, while Goldman Sachs sees stabilization near $10,000–$11,000/t.

• Zambia and DRC stand to gain fiscally as strong copper prices boost revenues and support local currency stability.

The value of copper futures rose by 3.45% on Monday, October 13, 2025, marking the second-largest daily gain in the past 30 days. Futures are now targeting around 10,775 dollars per metric ton, the highest level since May 2024. The rally reflects a combination of factors, including a weaker U.S. dollar, tight supply conditions, and recent mining disruptions in major producing countries.

According to ING analyst Ewa Manthey quoted by Investing.com, the metal’s rise in 2025 has been driven by these supply and currency dynamics, but for the rally to continue, it would require stronger demand growth, particularly from China, which remains the world’s largest consumer of refined copper. ING maintains a cautious outlook, noting that the pace of Chinese industrial recovery and infrastructure stimulus will be decisive in determining the durability of current price levels.

Analysts Divided Over the Outlook

Market analysts remain divided on the medium-term trajectory of copper prices. UBS recently raised its 2026–2028 copper price forecasts by about 15%, targeting around six dollars per pound, or roughly 13,250 dollars per ton in 2027. The bank expects limited mine supply growth to lead to market tightness within the next year, supporting higher prices. UBS has maintained a broadly positive view on copper fundamentals for the past two years, emphasizing that new mine development remains constrained while demand linked to electrification and renewable infrastructure continues to expand.

Goldman Sachs, however, adopts a more conservative stance. The bank projects that copper prices will stay in a range of 10,000 to 11,000 dollars per ton through 2026 and 2027 due to a potential market surplus. Its analysts point to three key factors that could cap price gains. First, Chinese buyers may scale back purchases if prices exceed 11,000 dollars, as was observed in mid-2024.

Second, excess inventories in the United States could quickly rebalance the market if London Metal Exchange spreads tighten. Third, demand projections linked to data center construction may have been overstated. These differing assessments illustrate the current uncertainty in the copper market, where structural optimism tied to the energy transition coexists with short-term caution about consumption trends and inventory levels.

Implications for Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo

For Zambia, the recent strengthening of copper prices offers a favorable economic outlook. The current market levels already exceed the government’s 2025 reference assumption of 9,546 dollars per ton, which provides an opportunity for stronger fiscal revenues. The country’s target of producing around one million metric tons of copper this year could translate into higher export earnings and improved budgetary inflows through taxes and royalties, provided production continues to meet expectations. Sustaining this performance will depend largely on stable power supply and consistent operational output from major mining firms.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the upward movement in copper prices also brings positive prospects. The DRC remains one of the world’s leading producers of both copper and cobalt, and higher dollar-denominated export earnings help strengthen its fiscal position. The government’s recent monetary and fiscal reforms have contributed to an appreciation of the local currency, and the increase in copper revenues in foreign currency terms supports the state's ability to generate greater local-currency resources to meet its spending obligations. In this context, resilient copper prices act as an important buffer for the country’s economic stability at a time when other commodity markets, such as cobalt, have shown less favorable trends.

Copper’s rebound in 2025 provides renewed fiscal breathing space for major African producers such as Zambia and the DRC. The sustainability of this trend will depend on the global balance between supply constraints and demand from China, as well as the broader macroeconomic environment shaped by the strength of the U.S. dollar. While forecasts diverge between a scenario of prolonged tightness and one of near-term stabilization, both countries stand to benefit from current price levels, which reinforce their export revenues and fiscal resilience in a period of global economic adjustment.

Idriss Linge