• IEA sees oil demand rising to 113M bpd by 2050 under current policies
• Energy transition slows; fossil fuel reliance persists despite clean tech growth
• Africa risks exclusion from low-carbon economy amid low energy investment

Global demand for oil and gas could keep rising through 2050 despite growing investment in clean energy, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its “World Energy Outlook 2025,” published Nov. 12. The agency said current policies will not achieve carbon neutrality or limit fossil fuel use before mid-century.

In its existing policies scenario, the IEA expects oil demand to increase from 100 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 to 113 million bpd in 2050, driven mainly by the petrochemical and aviation sectors. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand is projected to grow by 50 percent by 2030, supported by expanding export capacity in the United States.

This outlook represents a shift from the agency’s previous expectation that global oil demand would peak before 2030. The IEA now says the energy transition is slowing. Contributing factors include the renewed push for fossil fuel production in the United States under Donald Trump, the possibility of electric vehicle sales leveling off after 2035 in several regions, and the continued subsidization of coal, oil and gas in major emerging economies. The slowdown is also linked to rising dependence on China, which controls about 70 percent of the processing capacity for the critical minerals required for clean technologies.

The agency noted that the world is being pulled in two opposite directions: rapid growth in renewables, especially solar power, which now accounts for half of new energy investment, and ongoing reliance on fossil fuels. As a result, emissions are still increasing. The IEA says global warming is likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold this century before potentially easing by 2100.

For Africa, this global shift has two major consequences. The continent attracts only 3 percent of worldwide energy investment, and most of that still goes to fossil fuels. If global demand for hydrocarbons remains strong, some African producers may benefit in the short term. However, without major investment in electricity generation, transmission networks and renewable energy, Africa risks being left behind in the emerging low-carbon economy.

Olivier de Souza