• Russia to supply 50% of North Africa’s wheat imports in 2024/2025, led by 13.5M tons shipped

• Russia dominates Egypt’s market and overtakes France in Morocco; strong gains in Libya and Tunisia

• Ukraine’s wheat exports to Algeria and Tunisia surge after earlier wartime decline
  

Russia is projected to account for 50% of North Africa's total wheat purchases, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), as the nation continues to break records for wheat exports to the region.

In the 2024/2025 marketing year, Russian exports to North Africa exceeded 13.5 million metric tons, accounting for approximately 42% of the region's total imports. This compares to 25% from European Union countries. France, the EU's primary exporter, experienced a decline in shipments to several markets, including Morocco and Algeria, due to one of its weakest harvests in decades.

The USDA reports that Russia's dominance is even more pronounced in Egypt, where it holds nearly a 70% market share, with annual sales exceeding 7 million tons. Russia also has a near-monopoly in Libya and is steadily increasing its presence in Tunisia and Morocco.

During the marketing year ending last June, wheat exports to Tunisia increased by 50%, while shipments to Morocco doubled. In August 2024, Russia became Morocco's main supplier for the first time, surpassing France, and aims to export 1 million tons to Morocco this year.

Beyond Russia, the USDA notes that Ukraine has also resumed exports to the region after a significant drop at the beginning of its conflict with Russia. Algeria has become Ukraine's third-largest market, with exports nearly tripling year-on-year. Shipments to Tunisia have also risen by more than 50%.

Overall, North Africa is expected to remain a crucial hub for global wheat trade in 2025/2026, with imports projected to reach a new record of 32.2 million tons.

Espoir Olodo