• IEA warns of slow progress in Africa's green hydrogen plans
• Less than 0.5% of projects in emerging regions have funding
• High costs, low renewables, export reliance hinder large-scale rollout

Africa is one of the most sought-after regions for green hydrogen development, with projects that could transform its energy landscape and position it as a major player in global exports. However, the "Global Hydrogen Review 2025" report published on Friday, September 12, by the International Energy Agency (IEA) highlights a gap between these ambitions and on-the-ground realities.

According to the IEA, if all proposed projects come to fruition, Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia could produce more than 9 million tons per year of low-carbon hydrogen by 2030, representing a quarter of the global total. Yet, less than 0.5% of these projects have secured committed investments, compared to over 9% worldwide. As a result, only about 5% of the announced projects in emerging economies are likely to be operational by that deadline, with the vast majority expected to materialize later.

Among the obstacles explaining this slow pace of execution is the sluggish integration of renewable energy. In 2024, the three regions combined accounted for only 6% of new global solar and wind capacity, a level considered insufficient to support large-scale electrolytic production. Furthermore, there is a dependence on external markets, as nearly 80% of the announced projects in these regions are intended for export, nearly double the global average. This makes them dependent on still-limited international demand.

The financial challenge is equally significant. Realizing all announced projects would require 420 GW of electrolysis capacity and more than $1.5 trillion, equivalent to the total global investment in new power generation capacity in 2024. However, the three regions have attracted less than 9% of this investment, with the cost of capital reaching as high as 15%, compared to 5% to 7% in advanced economies.

This assessment leads to a more realistic projection. Africa, like its peers, is likely to see the emergence of a few pilot and demonstration projects rather than a full-fledged industry by 2030. The focus over the next five years will be less on a race for export volumes and more on the gradual consolidation of a local sector capable of laying the groundwork for large-scale projects.

Abdoullah Diop