• Market sources expect rice prices to keep falling in the first quarter of 2026.

• India is heading for a record harvest and may release large export volumes.

• Strong Indian supply is increasing pressure on Thai and Vietnamese prices.

In the global rice market, the price downturn may not be over yet. According to market sources cited by Platts, downward pressure could continue into the first quarter of 2026, driven by India’s strong return to the export market.

The world’s most populous country is on track for a record rice harvest of 124.5 million tons in the 2024/2025 season, up 1.7 million tons from a year earlier, based on official data released in late November.

This abundance has pushed up domestic stocks and could lead the government to ease inventories through the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS). The mechanism, still under review for the current season, usually allows authorities to sell part of public rice stocks on the domestic market to contain local prices. If implemented by mid-January as planned, it could generate significant exportable volumes.

Such a surplus, combined with the depreciation of the rupee, would further strengthen India’s competitiveness against other Asian suppliers such as Thailand and Vietnam.

According to Platts, Indian 5% broken white rice was priced at $338 a ton on December 5, down $5 month on month. Over the same period, Thai and Vietnamese equivalents rose by $50 and $9 to $379 and $358, respectively.

Facing strong competition from India, these two exporters are expected to remain under pressure on market share in the first quarter of 2026, with a growing risk of forced price adjustments if India confirms a more aggressive pricing strategy.

“With the arrival of the new crop, I expect the price of Thai 5% broken white rice to fall to around $340 per ton FOB by February, from more than $380 per ton currently,” said a Bangkok-based supplier.

According to observers, price trends in the coming weeks could reshape global rice trade flows, as importers remain cautious for now. The African market will be closely watched, particularly due to excess stocks in West Africa, which could limit the strength of export demand.

Espoir Olodo