Now far behind the Democratic Republic of Congo, Zambia was Africa’s leading copper producer in the second half of the 20th century. The southern African nation unveiled a growth strategy several years ago to reclaim that position, and implementation is now well underway.

Prospect Resources said on Monday it had raised A$45 million ($31.8 million) for its Mumbezhi copper project in Zambia. The company is targeting a pre-feasibility study by the second half of 2027, a key step toward building a mine that could contribute to a wave of projects aimed at lifting Zambia’s annual copper output to 3 million tons by 2031. Zambia aims to rank among the world’s leading copper producers alongside the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Zambia’s copper production rose 8% year-on-year to 890,346 tons in 2025. The DRC has yet to publish its production data, but exports reached 3.4 million tons that year, up from 3.1 million tons in 2024. The figures highlight the scale of the gap between Africa’s two main copper producers. The DRC has ranked as the world’s second-largest producer for several years, while Zambia typically places seventh or eighth.

Closing the Gap

The production ranking has not always favored the DRC. In the 20th century, Zambia was the continent’s leading producer, with output peaking at 708,000 tons in 1969, placing it among the world’s top suppliers. Despite a sharp decline in subsequent decades, Zambia maintained an edge until the early 2010s. In 2013, the DRC overtook its neighbor for the first time, producing 862,652 tons compared with Zambia’s 763,805 tons, and has remained ahead ever since.

Congolese output has more than tripled over the past decade, exceeding 3 million tons annually since 2023. By contrast, Zambia recorded three consecutive years of decline between 2021 and 2023. The downturn followed strained relations between mining investors and the government after tighter tax measures were introduced. Several companies postponed expansion plans as a result.

After taking office in 2021, President Hakainde Hichilema introduced reforms aimed at restoring investor confidence, helping stabilize the sector. The government later set a target of pushing copper output to record levels by the early 2030s.

A Realistic Target?

Zambia has attracted about $10 billion in mining investment over the past four years, according to Mines Minister Paul Kabuswe, who credited the Hichilema administration’s reforms. By comparison, Côte d’Ivoire attracted $3.6 billion in mining investment over the past decade.

To meet its 2031 target, Zambia is relying on these investments to expand capacity at existing mines, restart underperforming operations and develop new projects. Roughly half of the planned 3 million tons would need to come from newly discovered deposits. However, a PwC report published in January 2026 said most additional output is likely to come from expanding existing mines, a faster option because it builds on known deposits and infrastructure.

That would require additional smelting capacity, reliable electricity supply and regulatory approvals granted on predictable timelines. New mines and expanded exploration would be needed to sustain output growth beyond 2035. PwC estimates that reprocessing mining waste could add around 150,000 tons by 2031, while artisanal and small-scale mining could contribute nearly 50,000 tons annually by 2030.

According to PwC’s January 2026 report, reaching 3 million tons would require sustained investment across the mining value chain, and the firm considers the target within reach under supportive conditions.

Sustainable Growth

Despite higher output in 2025, Zambia fell short of its 1 million ton target. One setback was the February 2025 collapse of a tailings dam at a site operated by Chinese group Sino-Metals near Kitwe. The company suspended operations afterward, slowing national output growth. The incident also renewed scrutiny of mining’s environmental impact in Zambia.

While higher copper production could support economic growth and boost revenues for a country still recovering from its 2020 sovereign debt default, expansion cannot come at the expense of environmental and public health safeguards. The dam failure polluted sections of the Kafue River, damaged farmland and affected aquatic ecosystems.

PwC said such incidents expose weaknesses in tailings management and highlight the need for stricter standards, greater transparency and more resilient infrastructure. As Zambia targets 3 million tons per year, the credibility of that ambition will depend not only on volumes, but also on the sector’s ability to meet sustainability standards.

Emiliano Tossou