• 950,000 sq km of Africa lacks government control, study says
• Sahel worst affected; JNIM blamed for 83% of deaths
• Burkina Faso accounts for 55% of Sahel’s victims

An estimated 950,000 square kilometers (about 367,000 square miles) of populated African territory is outside of government control, plagued by Islamist violence and trafficking, according to a recent study by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

The study, which uses data from the U.N. Security Council, notes that while the threat is largely contained in North Africa and declining in Mozambique, it is spreading in the Lake Chad basin and worsening in Somalia. The situation is most dangerous in the Sahel, where the al-Qaeda-linked Jama'at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) is reportedly responsible for 83% of deaths.

Burkina Faso is identified as a particular flashpoint, accounting for 55% of all victims in the Sahel. The nation's armed forces are said to control only 40% of its territory.

In Somalia, the al-Shabaab militant group poses the most persistent threat, with an estimated 7,000 to 12,000 fighters. The group receives material support from Yemen's Houthis and generates more than $200 million annually from extortion, taxes, and piracy. However, unlike in the Sahel, civilian casualties are relatively low in Somalia, accounting for only 2% of victims in what are described as primarily battlefield engagements.