• Regional growth outlook revised up by 0.2 point from October forecast

• Nigeria growth raised, South Africa also revised slightly higher

• Global risks remain tilted to the downside, IMF says

The International Monetary Fund has raised its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa in 2026, now expecting the region’s economy to expand by 4.6%, supported by improving macroeconomic conditions and reform efforts in several major economies.

The revised outlook, published in the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook on January 19, represents a 0.2-point increase from the baseline projections released in October 2025. The Fund said growth in the region should remain broadly stable at that level.

The upward adjustment reflects progress on macroeconomic stabilization and policy reforms across a number of large sub-Saharan African economies, the IMF said.

Among the region’s two largest economies, Nigeria’s growth forecast has been revised up to 4.4% from 4.2%. South Africa’s outlook has also been marginally improved, with growth now expected at 1.4%, compared with a previous estimate of 1.2%.

The revision comes amid a more complex global environment, shaped since April by a tariff dispute following sharp increases in U.S. import duties on several trading partners, including African countries.

On January 12, the U.S. House of Representatives approved legislation extending the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) through December 31, 2028. The trade preference program, in place since 2000, grants eligible sub-Saharan African countries preferential access to the U.S. market. If approved by the Senate, the bill would restore duty-free treatment for a broad range of products and allow for refunds of tariffs paid on imports made after September 30, 2025.

Such a move could ease trade pressures and support growth across the region, which has been grappling with higher U.S. tariffs imposed under the Trump administration, in some cases reaching 50%.

Looking ahead, the IMF expects sub-Saharan Africa’s growth rate to remain at 4.6% in 2027. Globally, the Fund has also revised its outlook upward, projecting world growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027. It cautioned, however, that risks to the global outlook remain skewed to the downside.

Ingrid Haffiny (intern)