• Morocco is the only African country rated low risk for corporate nonpayment in Allianz Trade’s 2026 report.

• Côte d’Ivoire and Algeria are rated medium risk, while South Africa is classified as sensitive risk.

• Ghana and Tunisia fall into the high-risk category.

Morocco is the only African country presenting a low risk of corporate nonpayment, according to the third edition of the Country Risk Atlas published on February 16 by credit insurer Allianz Trade.

The report analyzes economic, political, business environment and sustainability factors influencing corporate nonpayment risk across 83 countries, representing about 94% of global GDP. It relies on a proprietary risk assessment model updated quarterly to reflect recent economic developments.

Each country receives a medium-term “Country Grade” on a six-level scale ranging from lowest to highest risk (AA, A, BB, B, C, D). The grading is based on 18 indicators covering macroeconomic risk, political risk and structural business environment factors.

A separate short-term “Country Risk Level” is assigned on a scale from 1 (low risk) to 4 (high risk). This rating is based on 17 indicators measuring short-term financing risks that could affect trade credit payments, as well as demand-related disruptions. The combination of the two ratings results in an overall classification: low, medium, sensitive or high risk.

In Africa, the report covers 12 of the continent’s largest economies: Algeria, Angola, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania and Tunisia.

Morocco received a B1 rating, placing it in the low-risk category. Allianz Trade cited the country’s increasingly diversified economy, its industrial base oriented toward European markets, foreign policy alignment with the Trump administration and its potential to serve as an energy hub linking African supply to European demand. However, the report also points to weaknesses including youth unemployment at 35%, exposure to climate shocks and diplomatic tensions with the European Union and Algeria.

Major Economies Rank Lower

Côte d’Ivoire ranks second in Africa with a B2 rating, classified as medium risk. The rating reflects a stable environment supporting strong growth, controlled inflation, its position as the world’s leading cocoa producer, rising oil output and membership in WAEMU, which ensures monetary stability. Vulnerabilities include the dominance of the informal sector, climate exposure and security challenges linked to instability in the Sahel.

Algeria also holds a C2 rating, indicating medium risk. The country benefits from its position as Africa’s largest natural gas producer and a major oil supplier to Europe, as well as potential in renewable energy and mining. Allianz Trade highlights risks tied to youth-led social unrest, declining hydrocarbon production and limited economic diversification.

Tanzania, also rated C2, falls into the medium-risk category. Strengths include abundant natural resources, favorable demographics and infrastructure projects connecting landlocked mineral-producing countries to maritime hubs.

South Africa is rated B3, classified as sensitive risk. Allianz Trade points to the impact of U.S. tariffs, high public debt servicing costs, deep social inequality and political fragmentation.

Kenya (C3), Nigeria (C3), Egypt (D3), Senegal (D3) and Angola (D3) are all categorized as sensitive risk. Ghana (C4) and Tunisia (D4) fall into the high-risk group.

Overall, only one African country is rated low risk for corporate nonpayment, three are rated medium risk, six are classified as sensitive risk and two are considered high risk.

Walid Kéfi