• COP30 draft removes fossil fuel transition roadmap amid major opposition
  
  
• 29 nations warn they won’t back deal lacking roadmap from COP28
  
  
• Brazil seeks compromise as talks near end, divisions remain unresolved
  

The latest draft agreement at the COP30 climate talks, published on Friday, has removed all mention of a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels. The move deletes a key operational element from a landmark deal made at COP28 in Dubai in 2023.

The deletion follows opposition from several fossil fuel-producing and consuming nations, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Bolivia, Russia, and India, who have refused further compromise on the transition. Media sources reported that the Brazilian presidency of the COP had considered removing the language to avoid a deadlock, judging the opposition to be too strong. Tensions escalated on Thursday when some hostile countries threatened to walk out of talks, just before a fire suspended negotiations for over six hours.

Conversely, over 80 countries supportive of the roadmap had proposed a non-binding process allowing each state to define its own path without a fixed timeline. The removal of the text from the draft prompted a firm response. A group of 29 countries, including France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Sweden, wrote to the Brazilian presidency to state they would not support a final deal without a roadmap.

They argue its absence would represent a backslide from the Dubai resolutions, which were already weakened at COP29 when countries failed to reaffirm the transition pledge. For these nations, the Dubai commitment remains without concrete measures, and the lack of a roadmap undermines continuity between annual COPs. They contend that current national plans are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, necessitating a collective framework.

The success of COP30 now hinges on Brazil's ability to find a formulation acceptable to all. This could involve a compromise such as a forum or preparatory process, and depends on the determination of the 29 countries for whom a roadmap has become a necessity.

Other unresolved issues, including finance, adaptation, trade, and transparency, could also influence the final outcome. The deep divisions, with just hours left in the conference, point toward a conclusion that is unlikely to satisfy all parties.

Olivier de Souza