• Africa’s trade deficit with China widened 64.5% to $102 billion in 2025

• Chinese exports to Africa surged 25.8%, while imports rose modestly

• Structural trade imbalances persist despite China’s broad tariff cuts

Africa’s trade deficit with China widened by 64.5% in 2025 from a year earlier to $102.01 billion, driven mainly by a sharp rise in Chinese exports to the continent, according to data released on Wednesday, Jan. 21, by China’s General Administration of Customs.

Chinese exports to African nations rose 25.8% in 2025 to $225.03 billion. Chinese imports from the continent totaled $123.02 billion, up 5.4% from 2024.

Total trade between China and Africa hit a record $348.05 billion, a 17.7% increase over 2024.

The sharp rise in Africa’s trade deficit with China comes as Beijing seeks to boost exports to overseas markets after losing market share in the United States following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose higher tariffs on Chinese imports. However, that shift does not fully explain the widening deficit, which reflects long-standing structural imbalances in bilateral trade.

China’s imports from Africa are dominated by raw materials such as crude oil, copper, cobalt and iron ore. By contrast, its exports to the continent consist mainly of higher-value manufactured goods, including machinery, electronics and green technologies.

For example, African countries imported 15,032 megawatts (MW) of Chinese solar panels in the 12 months from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, compared with 9,379 MW in the previous 12-month period, an increase of 60%.

Tariff cuts

To reduce imbalances in Sino-African trade, China has removed tariffs in recent years on 98% of products imported from 21 African countries, including Ethiopia, Guinea, Mozambique, Rwanda and Togo. Since Dec. 1, 2024, it has also applied zero-tariff treatment to 100% of imports from least developed countries (LDCs) with which it has diplomatic relations, including 33 African nations. In June 2025, Beijing proposed removing tariffs on imports from all African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations, including middle-income economies.

Charlie Robertson, a British economist specialising in Africa, said the tariff removals announced by China will not be enough to balance trade. The South China Morning Post quoted Robertson as saying China’s zero-tariff policy does not address the underlying reason African exports per capita are so low: much of the continent is not yet industrialised.

Consulting firm Oxford Economics warned in a report published last December that another sharp increase in Chinese exports to Africa in 2026 could trigger trade tensions between China and the continent. It said the tensions could take the form of anti-dumping measures against “Made in China” products, including tariffs on goods available locally or import quotas. They could also lead to industrial policies aimed at encouraging local production and consumption.

Walid Kéfi