Rebased figures lift Nigeria’s GDP to $243.5B in 2024, lowering debt burden and reshaping economic weight.

Highlights:

● GDP Jumps 41.7% after rebasing with 2019 as the new base year, rising to ₦372.8 trillion ($243.5B) in 2024 from $187B earlier.
● Debt-to-GDP Drops to 38.6%, below the government's 40% ceiling and well under IMF's 55% recommendation.
● New Sectors Added include the digital economy, informal markets, NHIS, and pension funds for a more accurate economic snapshot.

Nigeria's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revised the country's economic outlook with a long-anticipated GDP rebasing. Using 2019 as the new base year—chosen for its relative economic stability—Nigeria’s GDP now stands at ₦372.8 trillion ($243.5 billion) in 2024, a 41.7% rise from previous nominal estimates. The previous 2024 forecast from the IMF was $187 billion. The NBS published the new estimates on July 21, 2025.

The National Bureau of Statistics has published the rebased Gross Domestic Product figures, using a base year of 2019.
In nominal terms, the rebased GDP for 2019 stood at N205.09trillion, N213.63 trillion in 2020, N243.30 trillion in 2021, N274.23 trillion in 2022, N314.02… pic.twitter.com/gL5QDx7RMA

— NBS Nigeria (@NBS_Nigeria) July 21, 2025

“In nominal terms, the rebased GDP for 2019 stood at N205.09trillion, N213.63 trillion in 2020, N243.30 trillion in 2021, N274.23 trillion in 2022, N314.02 trillion in 2023, and N372.82 trillion in 2024. This revision represents a 41.7% increase in nominal estimates compared to a 59.7% revision in the 2010 rebasing exercise,” the NBS indicates.

This revision directly impacts key economic metrics, notably Nigeria’s public debt, now recalculated at 38.6% of GDP instead of nearly 50%, aligning it below both the local 40% ceiling and the 55% threshold advised by Bretton Woods institutions. External debt comprises 18.8% of GDP, while domestic debt is at 19.9%.

Choosing 2019 as a new reference year to replace 2010 was spurred by Nigeria’s desire to rectify perceived inaccuracies in data production. Also, 2019 was selected due to the "relative stability" of economic activities observed between that year and 2024, influencing inflation calculations.

Rebasing, a practice Nigeria also undertook in 2014, allows for more inclusive and up-to-date accounting of the economy. This round introduces previously uncounted sectors such as the digital economy, informal trade, and health insurance services—sectors that reflect structural changes in Nigeria’s economic landscape.

According to NBS projections, real GDP growth for 2024 is set at 3.3%, with Q1 2025 growth at 3.13%.

After the rebasing, sectorally, agriculture’s share of GDP has grown from 22.1% to 25.8%, industry has dropped from 27.6% to 21%, and services remain dominant at 53.9%, slightly up from 50.2%.

Despite better representation, the NBS acknowledges that challenges persist in tracking data related to informal and illegal activity. Yet, the country now positions itself more accurately within Africa’s economic hierarchy—ranking 4th behind South Africa, Egypt, and Algeria.

This article was initially published in French by Moutiou Adjibi Nourou

Edited in English by Ola Schad Akinocho