• Africa’s grasslands could shrink up to 65% by 2100
• Over 110 million livestock farmers risk losing incomes
• Globally, up to half of grazing land may become unviable

Climate change could shrink Africa’s grassland area by as much as 65% by the end of the century, with severe consequences for food security, rural livelihoods and the livestock sector, according to a report published on Monday by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

The report, titled “Climate change drives a decline in global grazing systems,” is based on the concept of a “safe climatic space”, a range of temperature and weather conditions within which grazing systems can function. For cattle, sheep and goats, this space corresponds to temperatures between -3°C and 29°C, annual rainfall of 50 to 2,627 millimeters, humidity levels of 39% to 67%, and wind speeds of 1 to 6 meters per second.

Model projections suggest that shrinking grazing land will affect all regions. Africa is particularly exposed, as many of its ecosystems are already close to the upper thresholds that grasslands can tolerate. Under a scenario in which global greenhouse gas emissions are sharply reduced, Africa’s grassland area could decline by 16% by 2100.

Under a business-as-usual scenario, where emissions continue to rise, losses could reach 65%. Temperatures across much of the continent are already near the upper limit of the climatic range considered suitable for grazing.

More than 110 million livestock farmers could lose their source of income

As temperatures rise and climate change drives more frequent heatwaves, suitable grazing zones are projected to shift southward from the Ethiopian Highlands, the East African Rift Valley, the Kalahari Basin and the Congo Basin. The Kalahari Basin, a vast plain covering more than 2.5 million square kilometers across Botswana, Namibia and South Africa, would see grazing conditions deteriorate. Coastal grazing areas, with no room to shift further, could disappear altogether.

Prajal Pradhan, assistant professor at the University of Groningen and researcher at PIK, said the projected departure from the “safe climatic space” would severely test adaptation strategies previously used in Africa during periods of stress, such as switching livestock species or migrating herds. The scale of the changes, he said, is likely to exceed the limits of such measures.

According to Pradhan, the findings show that climate change could deepen existing inequalities and destabilize agrifood systems and the communities that depend on them. Livestock farming is a key socio-economic pillar in Africa, accounting on average for around 15% of GDP in many countries. The sector plays a central role in food security, employment and smallholder incomes, and pastoral systems account for about 80% of livestock production.

Globally, between 36% and 50% of land currently suitable for grazing could become unviable by 2100 due to climate change. This would affect between 110 million and 140 million livestock farmers and 1.4 billion to 1.6 billion grazing animals. Between 51% and 81% of those affected live in low-income countries already facing food insecurity, gender inequality and political fragility.

Livestock farming is both highly vulnerable to climate change and a significant contributor to it. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), meat and dairy production account for about 14.5% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

Walid Kéfi