• Osiriz estimates Sub-Saharan Africa rice imports rose 13.7% in 2025
• Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal account for 35% of regional imports
• Ample supply, India exports and high stocks keep global prices pressured

Sub-Saharan Africa’s rice market remains active, according to the latest report from the Observatory of International Rice Statistics (Osiriz). In a mid-January publication, Osiriz estimated rice imports into the region rose to 22.3 million tonnes in 2025, up 13.7% from 19.6 million tonnes a year earlier. The increase is driven in part by abundant global supply, which encouraged buying in several countries.

By country, Nigeria is expected to import 3.4 million tonnes, up from 2.9 million tonnes a year earlier. Côte d’Ivoire is forecast to import 2.5 million tonnes, up 19% year on year. Senegal’s imports are seen rising by 200,000 tonnes to 1.9 million tonnes. Together, the three account for about 35% of Sub-Saharan Africa’s rice imports.

2026: continuity ahead?
 For 2026, Osiriz expects African markets to remain among the main drivers of global rice demand. The region accounts for about one-third of global imports and is a key market for exporters. It also benefited from India easing trade restrictions in the last quarter of 2024, intensifying competition among Asian suppliers and keeping prices under pressure for more than a year.

While prices rose by an average 6% in December 2025 on stronger demand from Southeast Asia and China, Osiriz said global prices were stable or edging lower in early January 2026. Buyers are waiting for further declines before returning to the market, as expectations of ample export supply and softer import demand weigh on sentiment. Osiriz said three factors will be closely watched in the coming months: global output, rising for a third straight year; shifting trade flows as India returns strongly to the export market; and historically high stocks, equivalent to nearly 40% of global consumption.

This view is consistent with market data from S&P Global Platts published on Jan. 12. Platts assessed Indian 5% broken white rice at $347 per tonne FOB on Jan. 12, down $3 from the previous month. That made India the cheapest among major Asian suppliers, ahead of Thailand at $370, Vietnam at $353 and Pakistan at $384. Platts said India could export 24 million tonnes by the end of the 2025/2026 season next September, up 5.2% from the previous season.

India’s stocks stood at nearly 57 million tonnes in early January, with additional volumes expected from ongoing public procurement. Those supplies will eventually have to be released onto the market. Expectations of a bumper rabi harvest could add pressure, potentially pushing prices down by $15 to $20 per tonne from mid-to-late February or in the second quarter, Nitin Gupta, Olam Agri’s vice president for India, told Platts.

Espoir Olodo