A tenfold increase in capacity is possible by 2050, an IAEA report says, but financing and regional cooperation will be key to unlocking atomic power for over 20 nations.

More than two dozen African countries are pursuing nuclear power, a significant shift that could increase the continent's installed nuclear capacity tenfold by 2050, according to a report published early August by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The report, titled "Outlook for Nuclear Energy in Africa," highlights that this growth is largely driven by small modular reactors (SMRs), which have lowered both the cost and construction timelines for nuclear projects.

Until now, South Africa has been the sole African country with nuclear power. Its Koeberg plant, with two reactors, provides nearly 2 gigawatts (GW) to the national grid. The plant’s Reactor 1 received a 20-year life extension in 2024. But now, more than 20 other African nations are looking to follow suit, with several moving from the planning phase to active implementation. Egypt is currently building the 4.8 GW El Dabaa nuclear power plant, with the first unit expected to be operational by 2028.

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Other countries, including Ghana, Rwanda, Kenya, Namibia, and Nigeria, have also committed to nuclear technology. They are working with the IAEA to prepare the necessary infrastructure, establish regulatory bodies, and develop a skilled workforce. Kenya, which created an agency for its nuclear program in 2012, has also set up an independent regulatory body. The East African nation, which is dependent on hydrocarbon imports, aims to have its first reactor online by 2038 and is considering several SMRs.

Ghana is in talks with international suppliers, including the U.S. company NuScale Power, for both a large nuclear plant and SMRs. Nigeria has issued a tender for a 4,000-megawatt (MW) plant and signed preliminary agreements with several suppliers.

Given this strong interest in nuclear energy as a stable, decarbonized source of electricity, the IAEA has modeled two scenarios for the continent's nuclear prospects. In an optimistic "high case scenario," Africa's nuclear power capacity would triple by 2030 and increase tenfold by 2050 compared to 2022 levels. Achieving this would require over $100 billion in investment. In a more pessimistic "low case scenario," installed capacity would double by 2030 and quintuple by 2050.

Small Reactors Drive a Continent-Wide Push

Even with this projected growth, nuclear energy is expected to contribute only 1.4% to 3.3% of Africa's total electricity generation by 2050, well below the current global average of 9.2%. The expansion comes as African governments face a dual challenge: providing power to economies where more than 500 million people lack electricity and reducing reliance on fossil fuels, which currently supply over 70% of the continent's energy.

Nuclear power, when integrated into a diversified energy mix, offers long-term price stability, enhances grid resilience, and reduces dependence on imported fuels. Its ability to provide constant, reliable baseload power means renewable energy sources can operate more efficiently, unconstrained by weather or seasonal variations.

A major driver of Africa's nuclear momentum is the rise of SMRs. These reactors, typically ranging from 10 to 300 MW, are manufactured in factories as standardized modules and can be installed directly on-site. Their smaller size and flexible output make them well-suited for Africa's small or fragmented electrical grids. They also offer off-grid potential for industrial projects like mining and desalination.

Africa holds a significant advantage in its nuclear ambitions due to its uranium reserves. The continent currently accounts for 14% of global uranium production. Namibia is the world's third-largest producer, while Niger and South Africa are also in the top ten. The Langer Heinrich uranium mine in Namibia has been reopened, with production set to resume in 2026, and new projects are planned by 2028. Tanzania has confirmed an estimated 58,500 tonnes of uranium reserves, notably at the Mkuju River project, and has built a $1.2 billion processing plant there in collaboration with Russia.

Financing and Cooperation are Key to Nuclear Future

The pace of Africa's nuclear development will ultimately depend on funding. Projects require colossal amounts of hard currency and expose countries to the risk of over-indebtedness. This makes strong partnerships with donors and technology suppliers crucial.

The IAEA recently signed a landmark agreement with the World Bank, ending a historical reluctance to support the sector, which was long considered too risky. The June 26 agreement reopens the door for the World Bank to provide technical and financial support for civil nuclear power in developing countries. Its three priorities are sharing expertise, extending the life of existing reactors, and accelerating the development of SMRs, which are seen as better suited for low-income nations. The agreement also signals to other multilateral lenders, such as the African Development Bank, that nuclear power is a legitimate tool for a clean energy transition.

Financing from technology suppliers is also a key factor. For example, Egypt's El Dabaa project is supported by substantial concessional loans from Russia with low interest rates and extended repayment periods. However, many African countries face low credit ratings and high debt-to-GDP ratios. New financing models, ranging from regional SMR purchasing agreements to blended public-private investments, will be essential.

Regional integration could also accelerate nuclear deployment on the continent. Cooperation could help countries share costs by developing common nuclear plants while maximizing infrastructure benefits across multiple nations. Increased bargaining power from regional cooperation could also help African countries negotiate better financing terms. Regional organizations like the West African Power Pool and the Eastern Africa Power Pool are already in place to facilitate this. Several African states also have experience in jointly developing large-scale energy projects, such as sharing the hydroelectric potential of river basins and building transmission lines between countries.

Walid Kéfi