• Guinea holds first presidential vote since 2021 military coup

• Junta leader Doumbouya dominates contested election amid opposition boycott

• Vote tests stability for bauxite-rich Guinea’s economy and mining projects

Guinea held its first presidential election since a 2021 military coup on Sunday in a tightly controlled vote billed by the authorities as a step back to constitutional rule, with interim leader General Mamadi Doumbouya widely expected to win.

A contested race

Doumbouya, 41, who seized power four years ago after ousting President Alpha Condé, dominated the campaign, benefiting from overwhelming access to state media. Although the election is formally organised under a two-round system, his movement, Génération pour la modernité et le développement (Generation for Modernity and Development-GMD) ,campaigned under the slogan “One knockout blow!”, signalling confidence in a first-round victory.

The credibility of the vote has been questioned by opposition groups and international observers, citing the absence of several key challengers. Former prime minister Cellou Dalein Diallo and veteran opposition leader Sidya Touré, both living in exile, did not take part. Other potential candidates, including Lansana Kouyaté and Ousmane Kaba, were barred from the ballot on technical grounds.

Several opposition parties called the vote an “electoral charade” and urged supporters to boycott it, contributing to low turnout in some urban areas, despite election authorities claiming turnout of 85%.

Security and governance

Security was tightened ahead of the vote. On Saturday, hours before polling stations opened, authorities said they had “neutralised” an armed group in a suburb of the capital Conakry, accusing it of planning subversive acts.

The election was held under a new constitution adopted earlier this year, replacing the transition charter put in place after the coup. Key changes include extending the presidential term to seven years from five and lifting a ban that had barred members of the transitional authorities from running for office.

Economic stakes

For Guinea’s economic partners, the election is seen as a test of stability in the world’s largest exporter of bauxite. The military-led authorities have stressed continuity in economic policy, particularly around the long-delayed Simandou iron ore project.

Under Doumbouya’s leadership, the project, stalled for decades by legal disputes and infrastructure constraints, began initial operations this year. The International Monetary Fund forecasts Guinea’s economy to grow by 7.2% in 2025, accelerating to 10.5% in 2026, driven largely by mining investment. Election authorities are expected to announce provisional results by Tuesday evening.

Emiliano Tossou