• Glencore issued 2026 copper guidance, withheld cobalt forecast amid uncertainty

• DRC cobalt exports constrained by quotas, copper production prioritized

• Rising copper prices support strategy as DRC output grew 10% in 2025

Glencore issued its 2026 copper production guidance on Thursday, Jan. 29, but gave no forecast for cobalt. The Swiss-based company said uncertainty remains too high to provide reliable projections. It added that copper production in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will take priority over cobalt, for which export quotas are currently in place.

Glencore produced 33,500 tonnes of cobalt in the DRC last year, down 5% from 2024. However, most of that output could not be exported because of an embargo imposed in late February 2025 on Congolese exports of the metal, which is strategic for the electric vehicle industry. Authorities introduced the ban to address a market surplus that was pushing cobalt prices lower. The embargo was replaced last October with export quotas allocated to producers.

Exports did not resume before the end of 2025 because approval procedures were slow and complex. While unused quotas normally cannot be carried over, Congolese authorities made an exception allowing producers to ship their late-2025 quotas until March 31, 2026. For the full year, Glencore said it can export 22,800 tonnes of cobalt, including the unused allocation from 2025, compared with 18,800 tonnes projected for 2027. These volumes are well below the combined 2025 production from the company’s two Congolese mines, KCC and Mutanda.

Copper market supportive

Without an increase in export quotas in the coming months, Glencore said it intends to stockpile surplus output produced in the DRC and sell it when conditions allow. While 99% of the world’s extracted cobalt is produced as a byproduct of copper or nickel, the company’s Congolese mines are no exception. However, while cobalt exports face restrictions in the DRC, this is not the case for copper, whose price has been rising on global markets.

On the London Metal Exchange, the three-month copper price hit a new peak of $14,527 per tonne on Thursday, Reuters reported. After rising more than 40% last year, the red metal has already set fresh price records in 2026. The rally could allow it to outpace some analysts’ forecasts.

According to Goldman Sachs, copper could reach $15,000 per tonne by 2035, as demand is expected to exceed supply starting in 2029. Consumption of the metal is projected to rise with global investment in electrical grids and energy infrastructure, driven notably by artificial intelligence. Neil Welsh, an analyst at Britannia Global Markets, said these factors are already supporting the current price surge as investors anticipate increased global spending on data centers, robotics, and energy infrastructure.

Glencore said it wants to prioritize copper production over cobalt when commercially sensible, a strategy supported by current market conditions. The company’s Congolese mines delivered 247,800 tonnes of copper in 2025, up 10% year on year and accounting for 29% of its total output. The Swiss group has not yet presented detailed forecasts for 2026 but said it aims to produce up to 870,000 tonnes across all its mines worldwide, compared with 851,600 tonnes in 2025. It remains unclear whether the stated priority for copper in the DRC will result in higher volumes extracted in the country.

Emiliano Tossou