• The IMF forecasts Zambia’s real GDP growth at 5.8% in 2026, up from an estimated 5.2% in 2025.
• The IMF approves a $190 million disbursement, bringing total financing under the program to $1.7 billion.
• Public debt remains sustainable but high-risk, while debt-to-GDP is expected to fall to 90.7% in 2025.

The International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday, January 27, 2026, that Zambia’s real gross domestic product growth should reach 5.8% in 2026, compared with an estimated 5.2% in 2025. The IMF released this forecast after completing the sixth and final review of Zambia’s program under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF).

The IMF said electricity production recovery and strong mining and services activity should drive growth. At the same time, inflation should slow and gradually converge toward the 6% to 8% target range by 2027.

Despite heightened global uncertainty, the IMF said that “the medium-term outlook remains favorable and depends on increased mining investment, robust agricultural production, improved electricity generation, and sustained fiscal discipline.” However, the Fund said authorities must intensify efforts to promote private-sector participation, economic diversification, and more inclusive growth.

Zambia continues its public debt restructuring, with debt expected to decline from 133% of GDP in 2023 to 90.7% in 2025, according to the World Bank.

However, growth prospects remain exposed to several risks, including climate change, hydroelectric power shortages, and continued dependence on the mining sector. The IMF said public debt remains sustainable but exposed to a high risk of overall and external debt distress.

The World Bank said the poverty rate should decline by about one percentage point per year through 2027. The institution said structural transformation in subsistence agriculture and improvements in urban labor markets could accelerate poverty reduction over the medium term.

$190 Million Disbursement Approved After 38-Month Program

The IMF approved a $190 million disbursement following the completion of the 38-month ECF program.

The Fund said that “program performance has been broadly satisfactory, despite some delays in the implementation of structural benchmarks.” The IMF added that “all quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets set for end-June 2025 were met, except for the quantitative performance criterion on net international reserves and the indicative target on the clearance of payment arrears.”

The IMF said the disbursement aims to restore macroeconomic stability, strengthen economic resilience, and promote sustainable and inclusive growth. The approval concludes total IMF financing of $1.7 billion provided since August 2022.

Lydie Mobio