• AGOA expired Sept 30, ending 25 years of duty-free U.S. access for over 30 African nations.

• Key exporters face steep tariffs, which threaten jobs in textiles, citrus, automobiles, and vanilla.

• Africa pivots toward the AfCFTA and new partners, including China, India, and the EU, to reshape its trade.

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a key U.S. trade policy toward sub-Saharan Africa, officially expired on September 30, 2025, marking the end of 25 years of preferential trade access for over 30 African nations. First signed into law in 2000 under President Bill Clinton, the agreement allowed eligible countries to export thousands of goods to the United States duty-free, supporting the growth of industries such as textiles, agriculture, and mining.

Despite months of lobbying by African governments and U.S. businesses, no formal extension was passed by Congress or signed by President Donald Trump before the deadline. The Trump administration has expressed support for a one-year extension to allow for further review and restructuring of the agreement, and bipartisan support in Congress remains strong, according to reports from Reuters. However, no legislation has been finalized. South African and Lesotho trade officials indicated ongoing dialogue with Washington, with possible renewal legislation still expected later in 2025.

The end of the agreement has triggered immediate trade disruptions. In countries such as South Africa, Madagascar, Kenya, and Lesotho, key exports, including apparel, citrus, and vanilla, now face higher U.S. tariffs. Madagascar’s textile and vanilla sectors face rates as high as 47 percent.

Lesotho’s garment exports, which were once duty-free in the U.S., now face 15 percent tariffs, threatening job security for thousands of workers. Kenya’s apparel industry, which exported more than $600 million to the U.S. under AGOA in 2024, now faces tariffs of 28 percent. South Africa’s citrus and auto exports are projected to see sharp declines, with some industry bodies forecasting tens of thousands of job losses.

Despite these challenges, several African governments are using the expiration of AGOA as an opportunity to refocus their trade strategies. Kenya continues negotiations for a bilateral free trade agreement with the United States, aiming for a long-term deal by the end of 2025. South Africa is pursuing sector-specific exemptions and quotas to maintain access for its most vulnerable industries. Lesotho and Madagascar are seeking transitional measures to support their textile sectors, while Zimbabwe, which is not part of AGOA, is liberalizing its customs regime to expand trade within the region.

Across the continent, attention is turning to the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which became operational in 2021. With 54 signatory countries and a combined market of 1.5 billion people, the agreement is now seen as a long-term framework for building resilient intra-African trade. Policymakers and trade economists argue that regional integration, improved infrastructure, and value-added production are now more essential than ever.

African countries are also expanding trade ties with China, India, Turkey, and the European Union. In 2024, trade between Africa and China reached $295 billion, vastly exceeding AGOA-linked trade with the United States, which totalled $8 billion that same year. China has also eliminated tariffs on exports from 33 African countries, further increasing its role as a key trade partner.

While the loss of AGOA presents real short-term challenges, it may also accelerate a broader transformation. As many African nations re-evaluate their trade policies, the focus is shifting from preferential access to long-term competitiveness, regional self-sufficiency, and diversified economic partnerships. Whether or not AGOA is renewed in the coming months, the post-AGOA era has begun, and with it, a recalibration of Africa’s place in the global trade system.

By Cynthia Ebot Takang