Production

OPEC not likely to cut production in June - Analysts

Tuesday, 01 March 2016 11:14

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is not likely to slash production at its forthcoming meeting in June, even though prices continues to fall, OPEC sources and delegates revealed.

According to the sources, which consist of officials from the Middle East, stated that OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia is also planning to test Russia's pledge to freeze production before it makes any effort to stabilize prices.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Venezuela and non-OPEC Russia, in February had decided to freeze production at January levels.

However, Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, last week said that a production cut was not part of the agreement but the freeze was just the first step to stabilize the market.

Maybe by the end of the year (a cut could be possible) when it is really clear that Iran is actually producing the volumes they are talking about. But not in June,” a source from OPEC said.

January was Russia and Saudi Arabia highest production period, but Iran is the main supply doubt for 2016, as it is increasing its production after sanctions were lifted in January.

Iran had said that it might add about 1.5 million bpd over the next year. The country’s Oil Minister, Bijan Zanganeh, last week said the freeze was laughable while sources say the country will be ready to discuss a production cut once it attains its production level before the sanction.

Analysts are confident that output and exports might increase by 0.7 million bpd to about 3.5 million bpd in the forthcoming months.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and Russia have not voiced out that the freeze will be cancelled if Iran does not follow suit. Furthermore, Russia's Energy Minister Alexander Novak, has revealed plans to visit Iran, in March for more discussions on the freeze, which according to him could last for one year, Reuters reports.

Anita Fatunji

Ecofin Agency provides daily coverage of nine key African economic sectors: public management, finance, telecoms, agribusiness, mining, energy, transport, communication, and education.
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