Production

OPEC oil output hits new record raising doubts about a production cut

Tuesday, 01 November 2016 14:12

Oil output from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is expected to set another record high driven by a partial recovery of output from disruption from Nigeria and Libya and an increase in exports from Iraq, a Reuters survey discovered on Monday.

The survey showed that supply from the OPEC rose to 33.82 million barrels per day in October from 33.69 million bpd in September, 820,000 bpd higher than the target output range the group agreed to implement at its last meeting.

According to analysts, production reaching 34 million bpd would extend the oversupply in the market and could add to doubts about OPEC's ability to finalize plans to reduce supplies.

Oil prices which reached a 2016 high near $54 a barrel after the decision, has slipped towards $48 a barrel.

October's supply from the cartel at 32.88 million bpd not including Gabon and Indonesia, is the highest ever recorded in Reuters’ survey since in 1997.

Supply in Nigeria, where output had collapsed as a result of militant attacks on oil installations, increased as exports of Qua Iboe and Forcados crude restarted.

In Libya, production was affected by port shutdowns, strikes and protests since 2011 but output has increased in recent weeks ever since the reopening of some major terminals, but not yet close to the 2011 rate.

While Iraq exported more crude from its northern and southern ports, increasing supply to 4.58 million bpd in October from 4.52 million bpd in September.

Saudi Arabia on the other hand, has kept supply low, but still within the high level reached in summer.

Other Gulf producers, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait both produced more saying that their production is above estimates by both the Reuters survey and by the sources that OPEC uses to monitor its output.

Iran’s production which increased earlier this year following the lifting of Western sanctions, has decelerated as output approaches the pre-sanctions rate. The country is currently looking for investment to boost its supply further.

Meanwhile, the biggest drop in output was from Angola due to scheduled maintenance on the Dalia crude stream which made exports reach a 10-year low.

However, OPEC's smallest producer Gabon produced less as a result of a workers' strike.

Anita Fatunji

Ecofin Agency provides daily coverage of nine key African economic sectors: public management, finance, telecoms, agribusiness, mining, energy, transport, communication, and education.
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