Egypt’s economic growth is forecasted to fall to 2% in 2020/21 if the coronavirus crisis continues until December 2020, according to Hala el-Saeed (pictured), the minister of planning.

“There are two scenarios for recovering from the coronavirus crisis, based on containing the pandemic by the end of June 2020 or the end of December 2020. And each of them would affect different sectors to varying degrees,” she said.

For example, the Egyptian authorities are forecasting a 3.5% growth in the next fiscal year, if the coronavirus epidemic ends by the end of the current fiscal year, 30 June 2020.

The Minister also stressed that if the recovery takes place, not all sectors will recover in the same way. Some will recover quickly, while others will need more time to recover.

On the other hand, some sectors have the potential to benefit from the pandemic. These include agriculture, communications, information technology, the pharmaceutical and chemical industry, and construction and building.

According to Hala el-Saeed, Egypt was expected to achieve a growth rate of 5.8% in FY 2019/2020. However, with the slowdown in growth in the third and fourth quarters, growth is now expected to be 4.2%.

André Chadrak