In its World Economic Outlook report published last June 8, the World Bank forecasts the economy of sub-Saharan Africa to grow by 2.8% this year and reach 3.3% in 2022. The institution expects the growth to be supported by a recovery of economic activities in the sectors that were hard hit by Covid-19.

World Banks says the recovery in countries such as Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola will weigh more for an overall recovery in the region. Nigeria is expected to record an economic growth of 1.8% in 2021 and 2.1% in 2022 while South Africa is expected to have 3.5% this year and 2.1% in 2022, and Angola 0.5% in 2021 and 3.3% in 2022.

Last year, sub-Saharan Africa suffered a decline by 2.4% due to restrictions related to the pandemic, and the political and security tensions in many countries in the region. The growth forecast for 2021 should therefore allow SSA, and the continent in general, to experience a gradual economic recovery until it returns to pre-pandemic levels.

However, World Bank pointed out that this growth remains subject to fairly uncertain factors both internally and externally. These include the full implementation of immunization campaigns, the easing of political and security tensions in some countries, debt relief for others, the stabilization of inflationary trends, the reduction of food insecurity, the rise in prices of products such as oil and iron, and the return of a relationship of trust conducive to consumption.

Despite the projected growth, per capita income levels in 2022 are expected to be 4% lower on average than in 2019. The situation will be particularly difficult in fragile or conflict-affected countries, with output forecasts for 2022 down by an average of 5.3% compared to 2019.

While the World Bank is forecasting a growth of 2.8% for SSA in 2021, the International Monetary Fund is seeing 3.4%. IMF however warns that SSA’s economic growth will be the slowest in the world.

Carine Sossoukpè (intern)