In Côte d’Ivoire, GDP growth at constant prices is expected to slightly decline at 6.9% in 2020. This, despite increasing volumes of foreign direct investments (FDI) and public investments. Meanwhile, inflation should rise slightly, to around 1.6% from 1.2%, presently.

The forecast comes after IMF’s assessment subsequent to the second review of agreements (last October) reached with Côte d’Ivoire under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).

This situation, according to the Bretton Woods institution, is due to a “decline in productivity as a result of post-conflict aftermaths and an uneven distribution of growth yields”. Indeed, according to IMF, poverty rate remains high (estimated at about 46% in 2015). “It will be essential for the authorities to accelerate structural reforms, improve business climate, better direct public investment and increase spending to the poor”, the institution said.

However, the fund indicated that risks are balanced and mainly depend on reforms’ implementation pace, fluctuations in export prices and potential internal socio-economic conflicts.

Growth of WAEMU's largest economy is expected to remain strong, IMF projects, standing at an average of 7% in 2017–19, slightly below Ivorian authorities’ forecast (8.3% in 2018).

Let’s recall that in 2012-2016, the country has recorded an average real GDP growth of 9%, mainly fostered by favorable external conditions, relative internal stability and a series of structural reforms. 

Borgia Kobri