The report emphasizes that the relationship between conflict and climate change on the continent creates a complicated situation that worsens humanitarian crises and leads to widespread displacement.

By 2050, around 113 million Africans may be forced to leave their homes and lands due to extreme weather events caused by climate change, according to a report released yesterday by the South African think tank Institute for Security Studies (ISS Africa).

The Turning Africa’s Legal Advantages into Benefits for Climate Refugees report highlights that climate displacement could account for 5% of Africa's population by 2050, a significant increase from the current 1.5%. While many of these displaced people will move within their own countries, the number of cross-border movements will also rise. However, some will be unable to move at all due to a lack of resources, leaving them "trapped" by the effects of climate change, such as declining agricultural yields, severe water shortages, and rising sea levels.

Between 2009 and 2023, the number of Africans displaced by climate-related disasters surged by 600%, with 6.3 million people affected in 2023 alone. Floods, storms, droughts, wildfires, landslides, erosion, and extreme temperatures were the most common disasters.

The report also points out the growing connection between climate change, insecurity, and population displacement. While climate change may not directly cause conflicts, it exacerbates existing vulnerabilities, especially in regions already experiencing political instability, poor governance, and socio-economic issues. In these areas, the effects of climate change can spark violence, public unrest, and displacement. Many of Africa's largest UN peacekeeping missions are in the most climate-vulnerable countries, including the Central African Republic, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, and Sudan.

The report also praises Africa for having some of the world’s most progressive legal frameworks to protect climate refugees. The 1969 Organization of African Unity Convention, which addresses refugee issues in Africa, is celebrated for its broader approach to refugee protection compared to the 1951 Geneva Convention. Additionally, the 2009 African Union Convention on the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons (Kampala Convention) explicitly extends protection to those fleeing natural or man-made disasters.

Moreover, Africa has shown foresight by developing free movement protocols that consider climate-related migration. Although these protocols are not legally binding, they could allow people displaced by climate events to move across borders when other migration routes are closed.

However, the report notes that African countries have not effectively implemented these progressive frameworks. Factors such as rising nationalism, reduced political will to support refugees, limited financial resources, and inadequate asylum policies often hinder their application. Beyond that, a lack of technical knowledge about the intersection of climate change and displacement, as well as how to apply existing conventions, further impedes the protection of climate refugees.