On March 23, the Moroccan central bank, Bank al-Maghrib, published a release forecasting that the country’s economy would grow by 5.3% in 2021 before consolidating to 3.3% in 2022.

According to the central bank, the growth will be spurred by a revival of activities in the various economic sectors. However, the main contributor will be the agriculture sector, which is expected to grow by 17.6% thanks to a production of about 95 million quintals of grain. The growth will also be spurred by an improvement of the added-value in the non-farm sector, expected to grow by 3.5% this year.  

In 2020, the country recorded a 7% recession worsened by an agricultural season affected by the drought that hit the country. It caused thousands of job losses, translating into a rise (to 11.9%) in the unemployment rate.

Expecting an improvement in the national and international economic environment, the central bank indicates that the economic recovery measures initiated by Morocco will boost growth, despite persisting uncertainties.

"Over the forecast horizon, economic activity is projected to continue recovering, supported by the 120 billion dirhams  [ed. note: $13.16 billion] recovery plan, the accommodative monetary policy stance, and a relative renewal of confidence given the progress made in the vaccination campaign and of the favorable weather conditions prevailing during this crop year," the release reads.

The central bank also expects the budget deficit will drop from 7.6% of GDP in 2020 to 7.2% in 2021 then to 6.7% in 2022.

Moutiou Adjibi Nourou