• South Africa targets record citrus exports of up to 3.225 million tons
• Grapefruit and lemon exports to drive growth; mandarins decline
• Middle East conflict, rising fuel costs threaten export outlook

South Africa’s citrus industry is targeting exports of between 210 million and 215 million cartons for the 2026 marketing season, equivalent to 3.15 million to 3.225 million metric tons, according to preliminary estimates from the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA). Fresh Plaza reported the figures on Wednesday, April 1.

If achieved, this would mark a year-on-year increase of at least 3%, exceeding the industry record of 3.05 million metric tons set in 2025. Oranges, led by Navel and Valencia varieties, are expected to remain the leading export category, at 1.39 million metric tons, or more than 40% of total shipments.

Export growth, however, is expected to be driven mainly by grapefruit, with volumes projected to rise 16% year on year, followed by lemons, up 10%. Orange volumes are forecast to remain broadly stable, while mandarin exports are expected to decline by at least 3%.

Outlook tempered by risks

The CGA remains cautious about whether these projections will materialize, pointing to several external risks that could affect the outlook.

The main concern is the military escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran, which began in late February 2026. The conflict has disrupted maritime trade and complicated access to Middle Eastern markets, a key destination for South African agricultural exports, including citrus. According to the South African Chamber of Agri-Business (Agbiz), the region accounted for 8% of the country’s agricultural shipments in 2025, worth nearly $1.3 billion.

“The Middle East has long been an important market for our citrus. Disruptions in both demand and in shipping - as well as the international knock-on effect of shipping delays - are risks that everybody should be cognisant of. Shipping rates, too, have risen sharply. At the same time, certain Gulf markets maintain price ceilings on retail citrus, limiting the ability of exporters to recover these higher logistical costs,” the CGA said in a briefing note published on March 27.

Trade Map data show that Middle Eastern countries imported nearly $311 million worth of South African citrus in 2024, representing 17.2% of the industry’s export revenues that year.

The escalation has also heightened risks in global energy markets, putting upward pressure on fuel prices in South Africa. This is a major concern for the citrus industry, which relies heavily on road transport. Around 95% of the harvest is moved by truck to ports. Fuel is also a key input across production, irrigation, harvesting, processing and logistics, accounting for between 12% and 18% of production costs, according to official data.

With access to Middle Eastern markets already under pressure, rising transport costs are seen as a threat to shipments across all export destinations. In response, the government has introduced a temporary reduction of 3 rand per litre ($0.16) in the general fuel levy, effective from April 1 to May 5, 2026. According to Agbiz, the measure provides relief of 6 billion rand ($355 million) and could help contain further increases in food inflation and transport costs in the coming months.

Stéphanas Assocle