• Nigeria is expected to import about 7.2 million tons of wheat in the 2026/2027 marketing year.

• The increase reflects rising urban demand for bread, pasta and other wheat-based foods.

• Part of the imported wheat continues to move informally to neighboring Sahel countries.

Nigeria’s wheat imports are expected to reach a record level in the 2026/2027 marketing year, according to the latest estimates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The country is projected to import about 7.2 million tons of wheat during the period, the USDA said in a report on Nigeria’s grain market released on March 2. That would represent a 7.46% increase from the current marketing year, when imports are estimated at around 6.7 million tons.

If confirmed, the figure would mark the first time Nigeria’s wheat imports exceed the 7-million-ton threshold.

The expected increase is largely tied to strong demand for wheat-based foods in urban areas. Bread, semolina and pasta are becoming staples for a growing share of the population. The USDA projects Nigeria’s total wheat consumption will reach about 6.8 million tons in 2026/2027, roughly 6% higher than the estimate for the current season.

The agency links the rise to improving macroeconomic conditions, a more stable naira and a gradual recovery in household purchasing power, all of which are helping support food demand.

Lower prices for wheat-based products are also expected to play a role. “Many Nigerians have increased their consumption of wheat products thanks to favorable prices,” the USDA report notes.

Food inflation has also slowed sharply. After reaching 26% in January 2025, Nigeria’s food inflation rate fell to 8.9% in February 2026, according to the report.

A portion of the wheat imported into Nigeria is also re-exported through informal channels to neighboring Sahel countries. For the 2026/2027 marketing year, the USDA expects Nigeria’s wheat exports to remain stable at around 400,000 tons, with about 20% coming from domestic production.

Stéphanas Assocle