• Robusta coffee reached CFA2,074/kg ($3.68) FOB in Douala on March 3, surpassing cocoa prices for the first time.

• Cocoa traded at 1,521 FCFA/kg FOB and around CFA1,000–CFA1,150/kg in producing areas.

• Analysts expect a global cocoa surplus in 2025–2026, led in part by Ecuador, to weigh on prices.

On Tuesday, March 3, robusta coffee crossed a historic threshold in the Cameroonian market. Its price exceeded cocoa prices for the first time, both at export level and at farmgate level. On February 18, 2026, both commodities had reached price parity for the first time. Since then, the gap has widened in favor of robusta, breaking with a long-standing structure in which cocoa consistently outperformed robusta coffee.

According to data compiled by the Système d’information des filières (SIF), managed by the Office national du cacao et du café, the FOB price of robusta reached CFA2,074 per kilogram, or about $3.68, at the port of Douala on March 3, 2026. In producing areas, traders paid between 1,600 and CFA1,650 per kilogram.

By comparison, cocoa prices stood at CFA1,521 per kilogram at the port of Douala and ranged between 1,050 and CFA1,150 per kilogram in producing areas. In other words, robusta posted a premium of at least CFA500 per kilogram over cocoa, both at shipment and at farmgate level.

Cocoa Sector Faces Market Downturn

The reversal reflects the downturn affecting the cocoa sector since the launch of the 2025–2026 campaign. Cocoa prices had peaked at up to CFA6,000 per kilogram during the 2023–2024 season and had reached a maximum of CFA5,400 per kilogram in the following campaign. However, SIF data show that cocoa currently trades around CFA1,000 per kilogram in agricultural zones.

This trajectory diverges sharply from public projections. The government had expected prices to range between 3,200 and CFA5,400 per kilogram this season.

Analysts in commodity markets attribute the gap between observed and projected prices to international conditions. They expect global cocoa production to post a surplus in the 2025–2026 campaign, extending the recovery that began in 2024–2025 after three consecutive deficit seasons.

They expect Ecuador to drive part of the supply increase. Ecuador could overtake Ghana as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer as early as this season. Analysts estimate that the anticipated surplus will pressure bean prices throughout the campaign, both internationally and in producing countries such as Cameroon.

BRM (Business in Cameroon)